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THE NEW EUROPAEAN GEOPOLITICAL SCENE

by : germán gorraiz lopez
Tuesday July 20, 2010 - 04:23
JPEG - 4.1 kb

The mandate of the new EP clearly conservative dye will depend on the severe impact of the global economic crisis, draw a new stage to five years in which we can witness the beginning of the disintegration of the current European Union.

In the case of France, in the upcoming presidential and legislative elections of 2012 Sarkozy will face a left-wing Federation that could put you in trouble in the first round, but not prevent foreseeable achieved victory in the second round and the achievement of French Assembly majority, with the subsequent establishment of presidential power (Decade Sarkozy) that combined with the intensification of media noise of their interventions in foreign policy will inevitably become a reference of European policy in the next decade and viable partner for the two major world powers locked in future episodes of the Cold War.

In addition, we could see on the horizon of 2014 to the beginning of the disintegration of the current European Union and its replacement by a constellation of satellite countries within the orbit of the Franco-Germanic (called Europe of the Twelve), due to ECB’s requirements to comply with the limit set for the public deficit of 3% for 2012, (a very complex undertaking for countries including Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Ireland (PIGS), with rates well above the eurozone average (4%) and comfortably exceeding the original bar set by the ECB, (3%)), while Ireland , Greece and Spain in the most delicate to have the highest rate of public deficits in the euro zone in 2009, therefore at risk of exclusion from the eurozone in 2014.

In addition, the severe drop in exports because the contraction of domestic consumption in the EU due to economic recession, (the trade between EU Member States reached 60% of their total trade) and an artificially revalued euro European products more expensive and reduce their competitiveness compared to countries around the world could make the euro-zone countries like Finland net exporters, not being ruled out on the horizon of 2014 along with the other Nordic countries come to the constitution of a federation comprising Scandinavia (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland), once again leaving the Baltic (Latvian, Estonia and Lithuania) stranded and was finally phagocytosed by neighboring Russia.

In the remainder of the current eurozone countries, would attend the formation of coalition governments similar to German as levees before the severe economic crisis of values that is coming for the next decade, demonstrating clearly ineffective and causing the appearance in the political scene of leaders with personal charisma and power of conviction that will result in the practice in presidential governments with clear dyes autocratic.

Moreover, integrated European countries in NATO will be forced to assume greater responsibility in international missions and respond to the request of President Obama by a substantial increase of allied troops in Afghanistan, so do not be ruled out a reaffirmation of the sovereignty French would be reflected in the departure of French troops from Afghanistan before the 2012 Presidential (and by mimicry of other European allies), leaving the U.S. alone and with the obvious risk of a dangerous Vietnamization of the Afghan conflict.

Special mention for the United Kingdom in which converge a greater exposure to toxic assets (subprime mortgages), assets revalued property, and a pound that has stalled their exports, so will be forced to make successive rate cuts interest, implementing quantitative measures (Quantitative Easing) to increase the monetary base, repeatedly depreciate its currency to stimulate exports. Conservatives after the 2010 elections and return to power, led by David Cameron and faithful to its policy and no Eurosceptic UK will embark on a project in decline in which British sovereignty would be subject to the mandates of Brussels, could leave the EU and finally drive the flagship of a revitalized Commonwealth.

All other countries outside the orbit (Countries of Central and Eastern Europe member of the "emerging Europe) will suffer particularly severe effects of the economic storm by not having the protective umbrella of the Euro and will be forced to successively depreciate their currencies, massively reduce its growth, dramatically increasing its external debt and liquidity will suffer alarming problems (with estimated financial holes in 90,000 million euros for 2009 and 50,000 million in 2010) and must return to autarkic economies after suffering massive internal migration to the EC rule modifying the rules for adopting the euro in the European Union (EU) and thus to accelerate the accession of the Member States of central and eastern Europe.

Also, this will require the reopening of abandoned coal mines and obsolete nuclear power plants to avoid dependence on Russian energy of a skillfully combining energy blackmail, the threat of nuclear deterrence, surgical military intervention and destabilization of neighboring governments "undesirables" will engulfing most of these countries stranded by the European Union in order to ensure energy supply Russian gas and oil.

Finally, Turkey could reissued the 1960 coup d’état that would destroy the democratic mandate of the AKP (conservative Islamist party but in the style of European Christian Democratic parties) due to high inflation, rampant unemployment and runaway debt . Faced with this situation and without the protective umbrella of the EU (by rejecting his accession as full member of law), is expected to star in yet another military coup that would end the mandate of Prime Minister Erdogan, a political system emerged later fractured to produce a series of unstable government coalitions in the Turkish parliament.

GERMÁN GORRAIZ LOPEZ - POLITICAL ANALYST



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