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Australian Federal Labor & Victorian State Labor Government lies and slies hide climate change inaction

by Open-Publishing - Friday 15 October 2010

Environment Australia Gideon Polya

Top climate scientists say that we must reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current disastrous 392 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. However world governments are hell-bent on increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution.

This disastrous inaction is most apparent in the “brown coal” state of Victoria in climate criminal Australia, a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and the world’s biggest coal exporter. However, as described below, the Victorian State Labor Government and the Australian Federal Labor Government go to great lengths to mask their climate criminal inaction with falsehood, spin, with lies and slies (spin-based untruths). The biggest lies are that "gas is clean energy" and that they are "tackling climate change".

Facing an election in November, the Victorian Labor Government claims that it is the "greenest" government in Australia because it proposes to cut GHG pollution by “by at least 20% by 2020 compared to 2000 levels (equivalent to 40% per capita)" as compared to the derisory 5% offered by the Federal Labor Government and Coalition Opposition. However simple analysis reveals that the Victorian State Labor Government is proposing a disastrous doubling of Victorian population each 20 years and that Victoria’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution will actually INCREASE by 41% over that in 2008.

Climate Emergency facts.

The Earth is facing a climate emergency from man-made climate change via greenhouse gas production from massive deforestation, massive livestock production and massive combustion in 2 centuries of fossil fuels laid down over several hundred million years. Climatic disruption is real and man-made: average surface temperature has increased by 0.8C since 1900 but the average temperature increase is higher in the Indian Ocean (+2C) and Arctic (about +4C). Climatic disruption events that have occurred already include huge increases in forest fires, droughts, floods, glacial melting, sea level rise, tropical storm intensity, ecosystem damage and mass species extinction (presently 100-1,000 times greater than normal). (see John Holdren, “The science of climatic disruption”: http://www.usclimateaction.org/user... and “Climate change power point lectures” c/- Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (YVCAG): https://sites.google.com/site/yarra... ).

Already about 24 million people die avoidably each year from deprivation and this global avoidable mortality holocaust is being already impacted by man-made climate change. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming – noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (see Climate Genocide: https://sites.google.com/site/clima... )

Collective, national responsibility for this already commenced Climate Holocaust is in direct proportion to per capita national pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, fundamental to any international agreement on national rights to pollute our common atmosphere and oceans should be the belief that “all men are created equal”. However reality is otherwise: “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included) (see Climate Genocide: https://sites.google.com/site/clima... ).

Top climate scientists say that we must reduce atmospheric CO2 to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current disastrous 392 ppm for a safe and sustainable planet for all peoples and all species. However world governments are proceeding with Business As Usual (BAU) and increasing greenhouse gas pollution. Atmospheric CO2 is currently 392 ppm (and increasing at about 2 ppm per year) while the atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration is about 475 ppm CO2-equivalent (CO2-e; . CO2 plus methane, CH4, and other greenhouse gases) (see 300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm: https://sites.google.com/site/300or... ).

Climate emergency required actions.

1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying. Implicit in this approach is respect for the advice of expert scientists and top scientific bodies.

2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.

3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth (see Climate crisis facts and required actions c/- YVCAG: https://sites.google.com/site/yarra... ).

Pro-coal, pro-gas Liberal-National Party Coalition Coalition and Labor (aka Lib-Labs) want Business As Usual (BAU) for as long as possible.

Australia has been described as a mountain of coal in a sea of gas. Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter and is rapidly expanding liquid natural gas exports. 92% of Australia’s electricity derives from coal burning- or gas burning-based power plants. There is a huge economic and political pressure in Lobbyocracy and Murdochracy Australia to ignore the science and adopt a BAU approach.

The Australian Labor Party (that rules most of the States and has formed a Minority Government Federally) says that it accepts the science on man-made global warming but has adopted a cynical, BAU “delayer” strategy. The Federal Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition contains many “climate change deniers” and is similarly currently locked in to inaction.

The State of Victoria is one of the dirtier states in Australia, a country that has a world-leading Domestic annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution of 30 tonnes CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) per person per year and a Domestic plus Exported annual per capita GHG pollution of 54 tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year (60 times that of Bangladesh or Pakistan).

Victoria’s annual per capita GHG pollution is 22.6 tonnes CO2-e per person per year but this is set to rise hugely with the State and Federal Government approval of massive dried brown coal exports to Asia that are set to rise to 20 million tonnes per annum i.e. will generate 74 million tonnes CO2 annually on eventual combustion (see “Greens slam Gillard on brown coal deal”, The Age, 26 June 2010: http://www.theage.com.au/national/g... ).

The Premier John Brumby-led Labor Government of Victoria is facing an election and has come up with what it thinks is an election winner: a promise to cut Victoria’s annual GHG pollution “by at least 20% by 2020 compared to 2000 levels (equivalent to 40% per capita [i.e. with a doubled population])” (see ”Taking Action for Victoria’s Future. Victorian Climate Change White paper – the Action Plan, July 2010: http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/clima... ). The 2000 level was about what it was in 2008 - 121.9 million tonnes CO2 – and 20% off means 97.5 Mt and a per capita of 97.5 Mt/5.4 M population = 18.1 tonnes CO2-e per person per year if the population remains the same.

The Labor’s stated policy also involves an extraordinary doubling of Victoria’s population every 20 years from 4.3 million (M) in 2000, 5.4 M in 2010 to 8.6 million in 2020 (and thence 17.2 M by 2024, 34.4 M by 2060 and 68.8 M or nearly 70 million by 2080). This conveniently reduces the Victorian Domestic annual per capita in tonnes CO2-e per person per year by from 18.1 in 2010 to 97.5 Mt/8.6M = 11.3 in 2020.

However we cannot ignore the expected 74 Mt CO2-e to eventually be exported annually as dried brown coal each year and hence the annual per capita in tonnes CO2-e per person per year will rise from 18.1 in 2010 to 171.5 Mt CO2-e/5.4M = 31.8 in 2020 (no population increase) or 171.5 MtCO2-e/8.6M = 19.9 (if the population is 8.6M in 2020).

However Victoria, like Australia as a whole, ignores basic causality that necessarily includes huge fossil fuel exports as part of its greenhouse gas generation inventory.

Victorian Labor Climate Policies are a disaster.

Contrary to the most outrageous Labor spin and propaganda, Victorian Labor Climate Policies are a disaster. Below are some facts heavily based on the July 2010 Brumby Labor “Victorian Climate Change White Paper” itself. I have been a university-based science educator for 40 years (and still am) and I know that “ordinary people” appreciate NUMBERS whether football player statistics, cricket batting averages, blood pressure, tire pressure, interest rates, petrol price, gas and electricity bills, and cholesterol or the terms REDUCE and INCREASE. Quantitative analysis below shows that the climate change policies of Victorian State Labor Government (like those of the Federal Labor Minority Government) are outrageous and disastrous policies of inaction.

Australia must rapidly REDUCE its world leading per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (mainly CO2 and methane, CH4).

Top climate scientist Professor Schellnhuber (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany) says that for a 67% chance of avoiding a 2 degrees Centigrade temperature rise (would you get on a plane with only a 67% chance of it not crashing?) the World must have zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 and must achieve this with a global annual per capita average of 3 tonnes CO2 per person per year over the next 40 years (see Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-icognita: beyond the 2oC line”: http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/pp... ).

This means Australia with a World-leading annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution of 30 tonnes CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) per person per year (54 if you include our huge exported GHG pollution in coal and gas exports) must get to 100% renewable energy by 2020 (see Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-icognita: beyond the 2oC line”: http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/pp... ).

Beyond Zero Emissions engineers have shown that Australia can achieve 100% renewable energy by 2020 with a mix of the commercial technologies Wind Power and Concentrated Solar Thermal with molten salts energy storage by 2020 at a cost of $370 billion ($37 billion per year for 10 years) (see Beyond Zero Emissions: http://beyondzeroemissions.org/ ; BZE ZCA2020 Plan Synopsis: http://media.beyondzeroemissions.or... ; also see
Peter Seligman’s book “Australian sustainable energy - by the numbers”; for free download see: http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/ozsebtn/ ).

Victorian State Labor Climate Policies will INCREASE greenhouse gas pollution and are a DISASTER for Victoria, Australia, our children and grandchildren.

1. Under Labor Victoria’s GHG pollution will only go from 122 Mt (million tonnes) CO2-e in 2010 to 98 Mt CO2-e in 2020.

2. Under Labor Victoria’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution will INCREASE from 122 Mt CO2-e in 2008 to 172 Mt CO2-e.

3. Pro-coal, pro-gas Labor still projects 75% fossil fuel-based electricity for Victoria by 2020 as compared to 98% in 2010.

4. Labor projects a doubling of Victoria’s population each 20 years from 4.3 million in 2000 to 8.6 million in 2020 (and accordingly to 68.8 or nearly 70 million by 2080).

5. Labor wants a gas for coal conversion but due to methane leakage gas burning can be worse than coal burning GHG-wise (see Gideon Polya, “Gas is dirty energy and may be dirtier than coal”, Bellaciao: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?ar... and Gideon Polya, “Gulf oil & gas disaster, lobbyists, Obama & huge threat of natural gas (methane) to Humanity & Biosphere”, Bellaciao: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?ar... ).

6. Labor transport policies are disastrous - a tram is 20 times more efficient than a 4WD but Labor wants more highways and cripples public transport (e.g. disastrous Myki ticketing system and train and tram crowding and delays).

7. Labor agriculture policies are disastrous – World Bank experts say that livestock alone contribute over 51% of annual GHG pollution (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anhang, “ Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are …cows, pigs and chickens/”, World Watch, November/December 2009:
http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ).

8. Labor’s forestry policies are disastrous, destroying Victorian forests that are the World’s best carbon sinks and endangering 90% of Victoria’s flora (see Margaret Blakers, “Australia’s national greenhouse accounts re-arranged for policy coherence, : http://www.greeninstitute.com.au/im...
and Mackey et al., et al, , Green Carbon. The role of natural forests in carbon storage, ANU: http://epress.anu.edu.au/green_carb... ).

9. Labor’s climate policies threaten Victoria with more disastrous bushfires (173 dead on Black Saturday bushfires, 7 February 2009) and heat waves (374 heat deaths a week before).

10. Labor’s pro-fossil fuel climate policies KILL – an estimated 10,000 Australians die each year from the effects of pollutants from fossil fuel burning, the breakdown being 5,000 (fossil fuel burning-based power), 2,000 (motor vehicle exhaust) and 3,000 (other carbon combustion) (see “How many people die from Carbon Burning and Climate Change each year?”, YVCAG: https://sites.google.com/site/yarra... ).

11. Labor’s spin and its falsehood that “gas is clean” pervert public discussion and science education of Victorian school children. In reality, gas is dirty energy and depending upon the amount of industrial methane leakage, gas burning can be worse than coal-burning from a greenhouse gas pollution perspective (see Gideon Polya, “Gas is dirty energy and may be dirtier than coal”, Bellaciao: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?ar... and Gideon Polya, “Gulf oil & gas disaster, lobbyists, Obama & huge threat of natural gas (methane) to Humanity & Biosphere”, Bellaciao: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?ar... ).

12. Labor’s Business As Usual (BAU) climate policies will rob Victoria of access to free wind and solar energy and cost scores of thousands of future Green jobs.

13. Labor imposes new carbon pollution through Desalination, new coal power plant, new gas power plant, new gas field, coal exports and new highways.

14. Assuming no population increase, under Labor Victoria’s Domestic annual per capita GHG pollution in tonnes CO2-e per person per year will go from 23 (2010) to 18 (2020) but its Domestic plus Exported annual per capita GHG pollution will go from 23 (2010) to 32 (2020) (in contrast, Professor Schellnhuber’s analysis demands 0 tonnes CO2 per person per year by 2020 for Australia).

15. Federal Labor Government climate change policies are even worse and mean that Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution will INCREASE from 885 Mt CO2-e (2000) to to 1156 (2020) (see "Post-Copenhagen Australia will INCREASE its per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution", YVCAG: https://sites.google.com/site/yarra...).


16. State Labor must face a Royal Commission into its hugely expensive and carbon polluting public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure deals (coal, gas, transport, water) but that will not happen under a Labor Government if Labor is re-elected in November.

Victorian State Labor Government and Australian Federal Labor Government Climate Change policies will INCREASE greenhouse gas pollution and are a DISASTER for Victoria, Australia, our children, grandchildren, Humanity and the Biosphere.