Analysts blame the Island’s changing demographics, scandals for shift in political dominance

BY CELESTE HADRICK STAFF WRITER; Staff writer Michael Rothfeld contributed to this story.

Despite their national success this month, Republicans aren’t doing as well in New York, particularly on Long Island.

The Democratic candidate, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), beat President George W. Bush 58 percent to 40 percent and Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer trounced his Republican opponent Howard Mills 71 percent to 25 percent.

On the Island, Bush did better than four years ago. But despite registered Republicans outnumbering registered Democrats by 100,000, Bush still lost Nassau and Suffolk counties by 35,000 votes. Democrats have carried Long Island in the past three presidential elections.

For nearly half the 20th century, the Island’s Republican machines were considered unbeatable, delivering overwhelming margins for GOP candidates at all levels. But after reaching their zenith in the 1970s, the organizations have continued to lose power right through the most recent national election.

Nassau and Suffolk have replaced longtime Republican county executives with Democrats during the past three years. Democrats have taken over the majority on the Nassau legislature. Formerly Republican towns of Babylon and North Hempstead are now controlled by Democrats. More telling for the once vaunted Nassau Republican organization, according to some veteran politicians and observers, is its loss to the Democrats in this month’s election of six of eight local judgeships.

Shifting demographics, mismanagement, fewer new Republican voters and other factors combined to take their toll on the party. From the Island to Albany, finger-pointing and squabbling have broken out among among Republican officials, who are trying to orchestrate changes in the party’s top leadership.

"Statewide, we are losing election after election by larger and larger numbers," complained Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford), a product of the Nassau Republican machine. "There is no cohesive organization. We don’t stand for anything."

State GOP chairman Sandy Treadwell disputed King’s criticisms. "The future of our Republican Party will be determined by the hard-working men and women at the grassroots level not the few naysayers who fail to appreciate the hard work of our committeemen and Republican activists," he stated.

Albany officials last week said the party’s poor showing may lead to Treadwell’s removal. Pataki, the officials said, has offered Treadwell the spot Nassau Republican chairman Joseph Mondello now holds on the Republican National Committee, a post Mondello has held since 1992. The Associated Press reported that Monroe County chairman Stephen Minarik is likely to replace Treadwell.

Spokesmen for Treadwell and Pataki declined to comment.

More than 400 GOP state committee members and county chairmen meet today in Albany to elect a state chairman and national committeeman and committeewoman. Mondello losing the post would be a blow to the prestige of local Republicans.

A vacationing Mondello was not available for comment.

Mondello’s organization fended off efforts by Nassau’s Democratic County Executive Thomas Suozzi to unseat entrenched Republican state Sens. Dean Skelos (Rockville Centre) and Carl Marcellino (Syosset). All eight members of Long Island’s State Senate delegation - all Republicans - won re-election.

As far as the lost local judgeships, Republican strategist Michael Dawidziak blamed Kerry’s coattails.

"Anyone who is saying the party organization is not alive and well is wishful thinking on their part," Mondello spokesman Anthony Santino said.

But the numbers suggest that the Long Island Republicans are swimming against the tide.

Outside of the 1964 national Democratic landslide under Lyndon Johnson and an occasional local scandal in Suffolk that temporarily upset the norm, Republican voting practices on Long Island in the past "were almost totally monolithic," said former Republican Suffolk County Executive John V.N. Klein. "If you got the nomination, you were going to get elected."

Besides electing their local nominees, party machines delivered for their presidential candidates, too. Republican Richard Nixon carried Long Island in his 1968 race for president and then won in 1972 with a 369,000-vote plurality. Republican Ronald Reagan won his presidential campaign by more than 200,000 votes in 1980 on Long Island and more than 300,000 in 1984.

Yet since Nixon’s re-election, Nassau’s GOP enrollment stagnated, dipping from 364,171 to 362,038 today, while Democratic enrollment surged from 272,287 to 318,554. In Suffolk, Republican enrollment jumped from 258,349 to 348,035, or 26 percent. However, the number of registered Democrats soared from 145,340 to 278,414 nearly doubling the rate of Republicans.

"Thirty or forty years ago, if you moved out here and you were smart, you enrolled Republican because they controlled everything," Klein said. "Now that phenomenon doesn’t happen anymore."

Analysts say the change in election patterns is due to the Island’s changing demographics - the influx of more minority voters and higher-density residential developments are creating a more urbanized suburban community.

They also said the Island is turning away from the GOP because of corruption among individuals tied to the Nassau and Suffolk organizations, especially within the dominant Brookhaven machine in Suffolk, which has seen several of its leaders convicted and jailed.

"Thirty years ago, there was a sense that Republicans could run government more efficiently and effectively than Democrats and that no longer exists," said Richard Himelfarb, associate professor of political science at Hofstra University.

But when Nassau nearly went bankrupt in 1999 under Republican control and Suffolk became roiled in land scandals, "basically the machine was left with no potent reason for survival or for maintaining itself," Himelfarb said.

Still, Suffolk County Republican chairwoman Patricia Acampora said the demise of the Suffolk GOP organization has been greatly exaggerated.

"One of the reasons why I’m here is to present a new look to the Republican Party; to go out and find new registered voters; to broaden our base," Acampora said.

Staff writer Michael Rothfeld contributed to this story.

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