The cyclical course of History in the U.S.

By GERMÁN GORRAIZ LOPEZ

The fickle and cyclical evolution of history, could make two U.S. presidents (separated in time by about 50 years), were united by economic recession and the wars that will receive as an inheritance.
So, Obama and Kennedy would pass into history as sociological phenomena using intelligent mass of new audiovisual technologies to exploit his undeniable personal charisma, telegenia and power of the Word, have been two people with no experience or political ideology is known masses become icons and breathed the winds of change and return the illusion and hope to an American society mired in recession and with lacerating inequalities

Obama based his propaganda in the use of multimedia platform which he accomplished in his campaign (mainly in the use of portal Yootube and schedule of his appearances in "prime" TV until exhaustion repeating the catchy slogan ("YES, WE CAN" ) supported in the lush monetary liquidity achieved through popular Internet Fiscal collection and input of business and private corporations, emulating the famous Kennedy-Nixon televised debate of 1960 in which 70 million viewers witnessed the first televised presidential debate in history U.S.. UU, debate that marked the beginning of the use of audiovisual media by the presidential candidates by the media impact supply the ignorance of his election manifesto by the voters or the mere absence of risk.

Political features:

Delivery by the CIA of "poisoned gifts" under the envelope of Guantanamo

Bay and the proposed invasion of the Bay of Pigs: Obama signed Executive Order to close Guantanamo in a year, but his advisers are now looking to finalize the legal mechanisms a virtual space, the result of legal engineering of the "War Committee" (code name for the select group of lawyers and consultants who worked under the orders of the troika formed by Rumsfeld and Cheney Hayden true holders of power during the infamous term George W. Busch). But the tangled legal process could delay the settlement ahead of the "legal limbo", recalling the plan of the CIA during the Eisenhower administration to topple the regime of Fidel Castro and the subsequent, failed invasion of the Bay of Pigs Kennedy (April 1961).

Accused political inexperience reflected in acts such as Obama’s decision to declassify secret documents involving the CIA in interrogation techniques based on physical and psychological torture that would have won the dangerous enmity of the Troika consists of Rumsfeld, Cheney and Hayden, (reviving the gross miscalculation of the Kennedy brothers to belittle a rival of Hoover and openly confront his absolute power), so do not be ruled out the emergence of a plot that could end up endogenous republish the assassination of Texas (Kennedy , 1963).

Vice-election as senator from Texas and Delaware with proven experience (Lyndon B. Johnson and Joe Biden) to counter his youth and political inexperience, which shall assume the presidency of the country for reasons tragic (assassination), triumphing in subsequent presidential elections step condemning the GOP political wilderness surrounded by strife and weighed down by the disastrous management of its predecessors and by crystallizing the unfinished initiatives of his predecessors (Increase Health Insurance Coverage, Project Revitalization of Public Education and Immigration Act) .

Domestic Policy:

Recovery of the spirit of "New Frontier" kennedyano, embodied in Obama’s utopian program to assign huge federal funds for the Improvement of Education, the Extension of Coverage of Public Health and the expansion of coverage of unemployment to 8 million new stand, but will be postponed sine die or be born after its parliamentary decaffeinated to be clearly costly for the public purse (estimated cost about $ 127,000 million) and be plunged the country into a severe economic recession, making it expected delay "sine die" the Draft Law on Immigration, a project that would seek greater equality and protection of civil and labor rights for both native born and those who obtain the right of residence, but will be delayed and be presented by his successor, recalling the "Immigration and Nationality Act," sponsored by Edward Kennedy (1965).

Stagnation of the economic crisis
Upon entry into economic recession in 2008 of most developed countries, we would see increases in unemployment rates (the 2010 could end at rates close to 10%), coupled with a predictable increase in the deficit to the 1.6 Public $ billion (9% of GDP) and foreign debt to $ 12.5 Billion for 2010, (90% of GDP), a historical figure exceeded only during the 2nd World War, crisis reminiscent of the beginning Kennedy’s mandate, with the nation embroiled in a socio-economic crisis exponent were five million unemployed and the budget deficit caused by the military expenditures of the previous administration

Both Keynesian measures applied as a balm to the economic crisis, such as programs of specialization of workers unemployed, housing and aid to areas affected by economic depression and raise the minimum wage and tax cuts totaling more than $ 300,000 million for encourage domestic consumption (one of the traditional engines of the U.S. economy because it represents more than half the country’s GDP), but clearly inadequate and favor in most cases the upper classes.
Also enter into negotiations with unions and employers in order to achieve the wage freeze to avoid inflation, reduce the budget deficit to level the U.S. balance of payments and measures to protect the dollar’s role as a reference currency to the Russian media offensive and Chinese to change the world monetary standard. However, this economic policy requires the maintenance of prices of products manufactured by the companies and may revive the Steel Crisis (Kennedy, April 1962), which would deprive Obama of the support of businessmen, but that would increase his popularity among middle classes in the country.

In addition, following the decline in insurance earnings and bestial States increased unemployment benefits (eight million unemployed without unemployment insurance) would be ruled out in several states the appearance of holes financial (status in December New York would come into deficit for the first time in recent history to suffer a deficit of $ 600 million), the filing of federal agencies

Finally, we would see the gradual disappearance of the middle classes and the consequent worsening of the social divide in the country, being forced large sections of the population (especially blacks and Hispanics) to depend on social grants exclusive and live in poverty levels, (Stamp program would be unemployed in record numbers with 36.5 million people registered, compared to 29.4 million receiving this monthly allowance in 2008), which together with the revival of xenophobic sentiments in the southern states will rise to black pacifist leaders could revive the great march on Washington (Martin Luther King, 1963) and new radical leaders like Jeremiah Wright who, with their inflammatory harangues may just reissue the racial riots of summer 1963.

Foreign policy:

Establishment of the policy of "Peaceful Coexistence" Kennedy: U.S. President Barack Obama would have parked the draft Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield (NDM), replacing it with "a new mobile missile defense system, but after this spectacular statement , would hide a Machiavellian move to try to make Russia a contributor necessary in safeguarding peace and stability.

Moreover, Obama’s decision to sell new items of weaponry to Taiwan for $ 6,400 million (project approved by Bush) or the private meeting with the Dalai Lama would try to pressure Beijing to enlist their support in the UN to extend sanctions Iran, (pressures that have achieved their objective to be China’s largest creditor and totally dolardependiente U.S.), which could assist in a distant future to the enthronement of the "Geopolitics peer" based on US-Russia Troika-China .

The Troika achieve the beheading of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), as have lately intensified their political cooperation for trade agreements and extract political concessions from the developed countries (proposed nuclear cooperation with India and Brazil) and together have the potential to form an economic bloc with a greater status than the current G-8 (it is estimated that the horizon of 2050 will have more than 40% of world population and a combined GDP of 34 951 $ Billion), leaving pass the EU, India and Brazil as bystanders.

Notable foreign policy rift in France: the European scene, we could see the end of the honeymoon Sarkozy and Obama because of his disagreement with Obama on the Administration point, because after the formation of a government in Israel unlikely to Palestinian theses not be ruled out that in the medium term, the EU was forced to revise preferential economic agreements with the State of Israel. Also, we can witness the start of a new EU-US trade war following the imposition of protectionist measures both countries on imports of agricultural products under the guise of additional phytosanitary measures.

Asimisno not be ruled out a belated affirmation of the sovereignty French would be reflected in the departure of French troops from Afghanistan before the 2012 presidential election and the subsequent departure of the NATO military structures. (Emulating De Gaulle) and in Turkey without the protective umbrella of U.S. and EU and with the background of the controversial Ergenekon case, it is expected that the Turkish army (TSK) star in a new blow "virtual" or "postmodern" would end the mandate of Prime Minister Erdogan, due to high inflation, rampant unemployment and runaway debt, emerging later a fractured political system will produce a series of unstable government coalitions in the Turkish parliament, reissuing the 1960 coup d’état .

Cooling of relations with Israel: Despite having Kennedy with the explicit support of the Zionist lobby to achieve its presidential election (he received $ 500,000 for his campaign, and 80% of the Jewish vote) and after intervening to AIPAC and to ensure traditional U.S. unconditional support and authorize the first major U.S. arms sales to Israel in 1963, its mandate was marked by a cooling of relations with Ben Gurion.
For Obama, after the accusations by Arab countries of a tacit complicity with Israel in Operation Cast Lead (invasion of the Gaza Strip) and a shift toward the U.S. government for alleged pro-Zionist positions membership to the lobby of the Jewish members of his Cabinet, will be forced to become actively involved in the opening of a new peace process in the Middle East in order to lay the groundwork for the creation of a future Palestinian state (after recognition of State of Israel on the Palestinian side).

This agreement should be comprehensive and binding on all countries in the Middle East geopolitical area and to achieve the establishment of a new "status quo" in the area (after resolving the nuclear dispute with Iran and the restoration of diplomatic relations between both countries) operation that will include the initial opposition of the influential Zionist lobby but later accepted by Israel in return receive blessings from the U.S. to the completion of the West Bank Wall (which would include approximately 10% of West Bank territory, including East Jerusalem) and increased financial support (encrypted during the Bush administration about 3,000 million dollars in aid, an amount that represents about 2% of GDP in Israel).

Application of "double track" kennedyana in their relationship with the countries of Latin America: Obama will be forced to pay special attention traditionally considered "backyard of the U.S." to try to halt the expansion of Russian influence in Latin America after the signing by part of Raul Castro and Mendeiev Pact for Friendship and Cooperation with Cuba taking advantage of the political myopia of a Bush administration obsessed with the Axis of Evil, reviving the secret pact signed by Raul Castro and Khrushchev (Moscow, 1960).

If they do not reach rapid agreement on lifting the embargo against Cuba, could attend the signing of a treaty of military cooperation between Cuba and Russia that would include the installation of a radar base in an abandoned military base in Lourdes to hear comfortably Washington whispers of foundations and installing Iskander missile equipped with nuclear-armed strategic aircraft (TU-160’s formidable known in the West as BlackJak), supplemented by the installation of a megabase naval and logistics in Venezuela.

For its part, the U.S. would proceed with the pregnancy of the Pan American Alliance (recalling the Alliance for Progress (Puerto Rico, 1961), led by Mexico, Brazil and Argentina and conjugaría economic aid and preferential agreements signed with countries ideologically associated with attempts to destabilize the governments of populist-progressive (Cuba, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia and Venezuela), Colombia crossing being converted in the continental U.S. aircraft carriers.

The deepening economic crisis will result in frequent outbreaks of social unrest and the spread of leftist ideology throughout Latin America, so Obama could strengthen trade and military ties with Dominican President Leonel Fernandez Reyna of the danger of mimetic contagion Cuban revolutionary ideals, (reliving the support of Kennedy to Balaguer in 1962, fearing the emergence of an outbreak Castro in the Dominican Republic).

It is also likely a clear regression of democratic freedoms and a return to stage guerrilla outdated revolutionary (Peru, Nicaragua, Colombia and Bolivia) and Panama, it would be a reaffirmation of feeling discarded sovereigntist Panama over the canal, so may see a rematch of the Crisis of Panama in 1964 with the dispatch of U.S. troops that would ensure control of the bus, step recovering the sovereignty of that transferred to Panama in 1979.

Gradual withdrawal of troops from Iraq should wait until 2011 for completion and commencement of subsequent and complex process of division of spheres of influence between Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran to lead a coalition government composed of representatives Kurds Sunni and Shiite), (reissuing the Geneva Conference of 1.961 and the subsequent departure of troops and formation of a coalition government in Laos (! 962).

The Obama decision to substantially increase troop numbers in Afghanistan predicts the escalation of hostilities since 2011. (Emulating the Kennedy decision to support a decisive U.S. intervention in Vietnam), because according to the latest report says International Council for Security and Development (ICOS), the Taliban have gained a permanent presence in 72% of the territory of Afghanistan, (which represents an increase of 18% compared to November 2007) and would come to the capital Kabul having set out the Taliban government a sort of de facto in some Afghan cities and towns.

The CIA would have to confirm reports that the start of the Russian military assistance (military advisers, logistics and information from satellites, spies) to the Taliban militia of Afghanistan in their fight against NATO forces deployed there, with the objective of extending conflict and alliance with the lack of monetary liquidity of the European allies achieve their gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan before 2012 leaving the U.S. alone, implying increasing difficulties in getting approval of the budgets in Congress, embodied in the petition for Obama Administration an additional $ 83 400 billion to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2009 (it is estimated that the cost of two wars would be about 8,000 million dollars a month).

The current President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai (the first democratically elected president in this post) would be accused by U.S. of warmth in the fight against the Taliban, and there are reports of the CIA who may be involved in the creation of an Afghan coalition government between Pashtun and Taliban and that would mean the departure of U.S. troops.

Therefore not be ruled out the creation of an enabling environment for the coup and the subsequent ouster and assassination of Karzai, reviving one of the darkest aspects of Kennedy’s foreign policy (the overthrow and assassination of South Vietnamese president Diem (1963) and the subsequent increase in its military support to Vietnam, accelerating the escalation that would lead the U.S. to an impasse and avoid a dangerous "Vietnamization" of the conflict.

Obama would sign in 2011 the phasing out of troops from Afghanistan (commemorating the signing by Kennedy to withdraw troops from Vietnam, 1963) decision will not be shared by Vice President Biden and under whose mandate could result in the intensification and encystment of the war.