Blair suffers severe electoral drubbing over Iraq

Severe election blow for Labour

· Labour loses 211 council seats

· Tories +101, Lib Dems +67

Hélène Mulholland, Tom Happold and agencies

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/elections2004/story/0,14549,1236480,00.html

Tony Blair suffered a drubbing today as Labour limped
into third place in the local elections, losing control
of at least eight councils.

With about half of the results declared, Labour has lost
over 200 councillors, with the Conservatives and Liberal
Democrats both making significant gains.

Labour leaders have put the bad results down to the Iraq
war, which the prime minister claimed last night had
cast a "shadow" over the party’s campaign.

Tory chairman Liam Fox, however, claimed that the
results were the "worst performance by a governing party
in electoral history" and that they signalled an urban
revival for the Conservatives.

BBC projections show the Conservatives polling 38%,
putting them within striking distance of a majority at a
general election if the share of the vote was repeated.

The Liberal Democrats were second on 30% while Labour
languished on 26%, according to the projection from more
than 400,000 votes in the "Super Thursday" poll.

According to results in so far, Labour has lost 211
councillors, with losses including Swansea and Burnley,
St Helens, Bassetlaw, and Ipswich.

The Tories took an extra 102 seats and power in seven
more authorities, including Trafford, the first major
metropolitan council to declare, as well as Tamworth,
Harrogate, and Eastbourne.

The Lib Dems were up 66 seats but lost Norwich.

’Long shadow’ of Iraq

The home secretary, David Blunkett, said he was
"mortified" by the result, and blamed the result on the
Iraq war that had "split the Labour party, split
families and split friends".

"I am mortified that we are not doing better than we
have done," he said. "We know it has been a bad night
but we are obviously going to have to present the facts
as they are."

Mr Blunkett described the results as a protest vote
indulged in by an electorate who knew that a midterm
vote against Labour councils would leave intact "the
investment in health, education, and tackling crime"
under a Labour government.

Mr Blunkett added: "A bad night for us but not a take-
off from the Tories. They have not even got the
undercarriage down, they are not even across the
Atlantic, or dare I say the English Channel."

Mr Fox said the Tory’s local election success had
altered the Conservatives’ image as the party for "rural
England".

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: "It
has been a very long time since the Tories have
controlled metropolitan councils like this. It is worth
pointing out that the gap between the Conservatives and
Labour is the biggest lead we have had over Labour since
John Major."

The Conservatives are also hoping to win Birmingham city
council, the largest local authority in the country,
after two decades under Labour control.

Doubts over Tory revival

However, Mr Fox cautioned against translating today’s
results into a predicted win in the general election,
expected in 12 months.

"I am not saying the result today would guarantee us
winning the next general election. It would be absurd."

The Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, lauded his
party’s share of votes and poured cold water on claims
that the Conservatives were making a comeback under Mr
Howard.

Pointing to Mr Howard’s claims that there must be no
"no-go areas" for the Tories in inner cities, Mr Kennedy
said: "On the basis of the results so far there are no
elected Tories in Liverpool, Manchester, no elected
Tories in Oxford. That is clearly not a resurgence of
the Tory party".

The party leader rebutted claims put to him by BBC Radio
4’s Today programme that most of the Lib Dem gains had
been at the expense of Labour.

While the war in Iraq had "cast a long shadow" over the
Labour party, Mr Kennedy insisted that Lib Dem gains in
local elections were down to the party’s call for the
council tax to be scrapped in favour of a local income
tax, coupled with its "capacity for delivery" in local
government.

Second wave of losses

An internet poll asking how people would vote at a
general election suggested Mr Blair would lose his
majority but remain prime minister with Labour the
largest party.

And Mr Howard is likely to come under pressure himself
if, as expected, a surge in support for the UK
Independence party hits the Tories when the European
election results are declared on Sunday.

However, the focus was firmly on Mr Blair today with the
threat of more serious Labour losses as a second wave of
councils declare their results later today.

They include big metropolitan authorities such as
Birmingham, Newcastle and Sheffield, where Labour was
expected to fare badly.

Speaking as polls closed at 10pm yesterday, Mr Blair
sought to shrug off a poor showing for his party.

Mr Blair, at the G8 summit in the US, said Iraq had cast
a "shadow" over the contest but the government’s record
on the economy and jobs would "stand us in good stead".

"I haven’t noticed in the election campaign any big
argument come back from the other political parties," he
said.

"I don’t think either of them have particularly
articulated anything that causes me political concern."

Close contest in London

In the London elections, Ken Livingstone faced an
unexpectedly tight fight to remain mayor, though he is
still expected to win.

The mayor, who came back to the Labour fold after being
expelled from the party four years ago, is set to
receive about 35% of first preferences compared with 31%
for the Tory candidate, Steve Norris, and 18% for Lib
Dem Simon Hughes, according to a YouGov poll carried out
for Sky News.

In the second round run-off, when second preferences are
taken into account, the poll predicts that Mr
Livingstone should beat Mr Norris 53% to 47%.

However, in the scrutinising London assembly, the poll
suggests that Labour’s vote was cut to 24%, with the
Tories on 32%, Lib Dems 19%, Ukip 10%, Greens 8% and
others 7%.

That would give Labour seven seats - down two - with the
Tories unchanged on nine and the Lib Dems up one on
five. The Greens would lose one seat and hold two while
the Eurosceptic Ukip would win its first two seats.

Results so far:

Labour
-211 seats, 773 total
-7 councils, 14 total

Conservatives
+102 seats, 651 total
+6 councils, 30 total

Liberal Democrats
+66 seats, 532 total
-2 councils, 5 total

Plaid Cymru
+9 seats, 27 total

Residents Associations

+4 seats, 18 total

Green
+8 seats, 13 total

Liberal
-1 seat, 4 total

Ukip
+2 seats, 2 total

BNP
No change, 1 seat

Others
+31 -35 seats, 133 total, -1 council, 1 total

No overall control
+11 -7 councils, total 32