The Impossible Dream Erdogan

So far Turkey has lived polarized between secular nationalism, typical of more developed urban areas, and traditional Islam which has sheltered the most disadvantaged rural population. and the purpose of reshaping the modern Turkey, Erdogan, new "father of the fatherland" (Atatürk), trying to bring Islam, nationalism and Europeanism with their entry into the EU.

The ruling Justice and Development (Adalet Partisi, or AKP sees Kalkınma), often called in Turkey Ak Parti, "and that his followers used the word in Turkish Ak (which means white, clean, or blameless) to identify party) is a moderate conservative party, Democratic-leaning-Muslim, to the image and likeness of European Christian Democratic parties, not for nothing is an observer member of the EPP since 2005.

The process of EU integration

With the agreement Ankarade of 1963 and its additional protocol of 1970 fixed the fundamental objectives of the partnership between the community and Turkey, strengthening trade and economic relations and the establishment of a customs union in three stages. After decades of talks, the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has driven many reform measures designed specifically to put the Turkish state in line with the parameters imposed by the EU to welcome Turkey as a full-fledged state within the Union.

Thus, the abolition of the death penalty and the slow progress in respect of the rights of the Kurdish population in the east of the country served to advise the European Commission to initiate the process of negotiations for Turkey’s accession to the EU , which has important points in their quest for, as the population of essentially European country feels that the candidate has the strong backing of the then British prime minister Gordon and the new Turkish president has a pro-European profile and political and economic reform that the accession of Turkey to the EU demand.

According to the (OECD), the opening of negotiations the Turkish economy more dynamic and give impetus to foreign investment. Turkey currently has the highest rate of growth throughout the OECD area and the accession of Bulgaria to the EU respond to the interests of both parties

In addition, U.S. President Barack Obama in Prague supported the candidacy of Turkey to the European Union (EU), saying that "progress towards accession of Turkey to the EU would be an important signal of our commitment to this agenda and that we are tying Turkey to Europe, "because the United States and Britain defend Turkey’s accession to the EU, which currently has 27 members.

Turkish-US relations were affected in recent years by Ankara’s opposition to the war being waged in Iraq and Obama avoided a crisis in NATO, to ensure that Turkey approved the appointment of Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as new secretary general of NATO., since Rasmussen’s candidacy was frowned upon in Ankara, for the support they gave to the Danish newspaper in 2005 published cartoons of Muhammad and because the Danish government refused to ban a Kurdish TV broadcasting from its territory.

Finally, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accepted his appointment and added that his change of position was because Obama had been declared "guarantor" of certain commitments, which declined to elaborate, but Turkey has welcomed pessimism the election of Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Union (EU), as the Turkish newspapers remembered his words in 2004 against Turkey’s accession to the bloc, "The universal values that are in force in Europe, which are values Fundamental Christianity, lose strength with the entry of a Muslim country like Turkey. "

Opposition by the Franco-German discussions of accession, which is initiated in October 2005 are prácticamante stagnant. Some bloc countries such as France and Germany, are opposed to giving Turkey full membership status, preferring the prospect of a partnership, but the merits of the Franco-German firm opposition is the fear of loss of power political.

With the new Lisbon Treaty, the population will become a decisive factor for measuring the importance of each country in the EU. The great conquest of Germany in the new treaty, which is nothing less than recognition of their greater weight after reunification, would vanish in the light of the demographic time bomb represented Turkey. (In the EU would live now more than 3.7 million Turks, which corresponds almost to the population of Ireland).

Thus, in the horizon of 2060, Germany will be only 70 million inhabitants, compared with 82 today. In contrast, in Turkey its 71 million citizens of today will become 97 million in forty years. France, but also grow to 71 million, must be assumed that the most political power at the European Council and Parliament will have a Muslim majority country like Turkey. (S estimated that at the time of final accession, the Muslim population the EU would increase the current 5% to about 20% of the total population.

The second impediment to the Turks with a view to accession is their poverty for the Union, as with a per capita income close to a third of that enjoyed by large European countries ($ 11,288) there are concerns that the new socio hog most of European funds. However, this policy could turn against the EU, as the accession processes have functioned as an instrument of democratization and reform the continent and closed case of the enlargement process, there is a risk that the democratic values that the EU has exported to the countries of the former USSR, to be replaced by the expansionist ideals of the New Great Russia, which would alter significantly the European geopolitical scene for the next decade.

Danger Alliance US-Israel-Turkey:

The diplomatic crisis between Turkey and Israel strategic alliance shakes military in recent years and and also to suspend maneuvers with Israel, (Anatolian Eagle, scheduled for next October), Ankara fighters expelled the Jews from their territory and could put end to the presence of facilities which intelligence the Israeli army (known as Aman) maintained in recent years in eastern Turkey, (a base from which you could hear the whispers of Tehran), Israel as would have been forced to launch military satellite Ofek-9, with high resolution cameras that could be used to spy on Iran’s nuclear program.

Thus, from the think-tank JINSA to the neocon elite has begun to harass Obama to break with Turkey, even demanding the departure of Turkish military structures of NATO. and the U.S. government would be considering the decision to support the main secular opposition party, center-left (the Republican People’s Party-Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) for the general election to be held in 2010 with the express objective of dismounting from power Erdogan’s government, for having refused to be accomplices and the U.S. war against Saddam’s secular regime in Iran for the most Islamist AKP may resist undoubtedly waging war against a country that calls itself itself ’Islamic Republic’

The unstable political scenario Turkish:

The Turkish military play a political role in the shade, while important, since they are considered the guardians of the secular and unitary nature of the Republic and the political parties judged to be anti-secular or separatist by the Turkish judiciary (at the behest of the establishment militarl) may be declared illegal. .

Thus, the Turkish Constitutional Court has agreed to ban the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), considering that there are links between this formation and the outlawed Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK) and the banning of this party, ( which has 21 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly), arrives in the middle of rising tension between the state and the outlawed Turkish Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK), breaking the climate of rapprochement brought about by Ankara to end the conflict Kurdish and could be the trigger of a new spiral of violence, coupled with a worsening economic crisis scenarios would cause high inflation, rampant unemployment and runaway debt and the radicalization and the rise of the TKP (Turkish Communist Party).

Thus, after negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008, there has been a GDP contraction of 13.8% in the first quarter of 2009, (most of the past 50 years.), Coupled with the devaluation of 30% of the Turkish lira and continuing negotiations with the IMF for a new stand-by program, but has not been completed yet due to the demands of strict control of public expenditure and in the event of failure to reach agreement Turkey may face difficulties in returning the debt accumulated by their private sector.

Faced with this situation and without the protective umbrella of the EU (by postponing "sine die" as a full member of law), and the history of the controversial Ergenekon case, (which many people, including army officers and members have been convicted for masterminding several murders and targeted attacks in order to instigate a coup against the AKP government), it is expected that the Turkish army (TSK) star in a new blow "virtual" or "postmodern" that would end the mandate of Prime Minister Erdogan, (recalling the ’soft coup’ of 1997, when the generals seized power the government of Necmettin Erbakanpor president, who led an Islamist coalition) and later emerging fractured political system will produce a series of unstable government coalitions Turkish parliament

GORRAIZ GERMÁN LOPEZ - POLITIC ANALYST