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Exit polls and ‘actual’ results don’t match; Evoting states show greater discrepancy
by Open-Publishing - Tuesday 9 November 2004CLARIFICATION: THIS REPORT HAS BEEN LARGELY DEBUNKED BY A DETAILED ANALYSIS RAW STORY COMMISSIONED BY A FORMER MIT PROFESSOR, USING A LARGER SAMPLE AND WITH AN EXACT UNDERSTANDING OF ALL STATES USING ELECTRONIC VOTING. PLEASE FOLLOW THIS LINK TO THE UPDATED STORY.
An analysis of the original AP exit polling, which showed Kerry with a tighter margin and leading in myriad states, raises serious questions about the authenticity of the popular vote in several key states, RAW STORY has learned.
Since the actual outcome of the votes have been called, AP has changed nearly all of their exit polling to tighten the margin. A reason has not been given.
The analysis, first conducted by a poster at the popular Democratic Underground, suggests possible voter fraud in states that do not have electronic voting receipts, and those that limit the media’s access to polls.
Two inquiries placed by RAW STORY with the media contact for the six-network exit polling consortium at NBC News has received no response.
The curious result comes after the head of Diebold, which produces much of the nation’s electronic voting machines, told Republicans in a recent fund-raising letter that he is “committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year.”
An exit poll involves asking someone after they walk out of the election booth who they voted for. While not a guide for proving results, it can be a mechanism for ensuring voting accuracy and flagging potential fraud. Exit polls were recently used in Venezuela to ensure the vote was accurate and legitimate.
Perhaps more importantly, while exit polling is unreliable, the odds of President Bush having gaining an advantage from every exit poll in swing states is an extremely improbable coincidence.
In Florida, Bush led exit polling by CNN’s exit polling consortium by just 5355 votes (when the exit polling information is multiplied by the actual vote). Yet he led by 326,000 in the end result. On Wednesday morning, CNN changed their exit polling to favor Bush, saying that had overweighted African American voters.
In Wisconsin, where exit polls put Kerry up seven percent, Bush has a lead of one percent, an unexplained difference of eight percent.