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Science proves that vote fraud is real!

by : Joseph Cannon
Sunday April 3, 2005 - 19:09
14 comments

Vote fraud confirmed: US Count Votes has come out with a remarkable paper authored by a committee of twelve, most of them highly-qualified mathematicians and statisticians from major universities. This study highlights the serious ramifications of the exit poll discrepancy while demolishing the "chatty Dem" theory (more properly known as the "reluctant responder" theory), which remains the official explanation for that incongruity.

The only possibility left is vote alteration.

Alas, this important scientific study has yet to make an impact. The media, distracted by the Pope’s death, hasn’t noticed that Uncle Sam is also facing the Reaper. The only significant coverage of this report has appeared in the Akron Beacon Journal.

For those of you who are paying attention, the full analysis is here. An "executive summary" is here.

And if you’d like an ultra-brief summary of the summary:

The exit poll discrepancy in the 2004 American presidential election was the largest in the poll’s history — about five-and-a-half percent. The odds against the polls being so wrong are roughly one in a million. The "chatty Dem" theory is nonsense: Responses to the pollsters were higher in Republican strongholds — where the exit poll discrepancies were widest.

Answer that, Mr. Mitofsky.

I suppose the only (weak) counter-argument he might offer would be along these lines: For some reason, Kerry supporters in Bush strongholds — but not in Democratic precincts — were remarkably eager to push all others aside and commandeer the pollsters. Not only is this scenario counterintuitive, it goes against all previous experience. It also goes against Mitofski’s own data.

Once again, I would remind readers of another oddity besetting these troubling exit polls: On November 2, 2004, pollsters did not restrict inquiries to the votes cast on that date. They also asked voters about the 2000 election. 43% of the respondents said they had chosen Bush on that previous occasion, while 37% reported having cast a ballot for Al Gore.

But Gore WON the popular vote. This simple fact — which even math illiterates should be able to comprehend easily — proves that the exit pollsters favored Republicans, not Democrats.

Author Josh Mitteldorff, in the executive summary of the US Count Votes report, does not favor the theory that touch screen voting had greater error rates than did punch cards. However, on page 18 of the report proper, we see data suggesting that mechanical voting machines had a significantly higher error rate than did paper ballots.

How to resolve this seeming contradiction? I remind readers that punch cards are run through a computerized central tabulator — the "mother machine," as Teresa Heinz-Kerry once put it. Absentee ballots and provisionals must be counted by hand.

The issue of touch screen vs. non-touch screen voting reminds me of another important study — the Leto-Hoffman study of Snohomish County, Washington. This investigation revealed that the ultra-close gubernatorial contest in that state would have been won more decisively if the vote were cleaner. Unfortunately, machine-counted votes had many more problems (to put the matter delicately) than did absentee and provisional ballots. Also see this account in the January 26-February 1 Seattle Weekly:

Their study findings, issued in December, got lost among the recount chaos. "I personally am surprised that the Republicans are shouting fraud from the rooftops," Lehto [sic] says, "and yet the Lehto and Hoffman study is non-news for the mainstream media."
This report, if read carefully, is damning. I was particularly intrigued by their investigation of Diebold’s strange insistence that the power cords for the voting machines be "daisy chained." Most people don’t realize that data can be transmitted over power lines.

Returning our attention to the new US Count Votes report:

So far, the best analysis of this analysis comes from Newsclip Autopsy. Highly recommend reading.

Here’s an important excerpt:

The exit polls for the 2004 election not only tabulated views from the Presidential election. It also received information about the voters intentions for the U.S. Senate races. Guess what?! Yup. Strangely enough, the exit polls were far more accurate at determining who would win for Senator. As history shows us, there is no precedent for widespread "ticket-splitting" in other elections. That is, if you vote democratic for President, there is an overwhelming probability that you would vote democratic for the Senator. US Vote Counts summarizes this peculiarity this way:

"There is no logic to account for non-responders or missed voters when discussing the
difference in the accuracy of results for the Senate versus the presidential races in the same exit poll."

No logic, indeed. Unless this is a nation where "multiple personality disorder" is present in epidemic proportions!!! To allay that particular fear, this report confirmed another startling finding which was observed in a previous report by the same group. Exit polling accuracy was dependent on whether the election ballots were hand-counted or not!! This is a highly significant finding, considering that, in Ohio, only a non-random 3% of the ballots were hand recounted. Many of these instances had recounts which were different from the machine counts.

And how did Ken Blackwell, the corrupt Ohio Secretary of State, respond to all this?
"What are you going to do except laugh at it?" said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, who’s responsible for administering Ohio’s elections and is a Republican candidate for governor. "We’re not particularly interested in (the report’s findings)."
There you have it: Laughter directed at science. Laughter directed at ten PhDs. As though placing the topic behind a curtain of guffaws replaces the need for a counter-argument.

Once more, the Republicans assail Reason itself.

Please do everything you can to publicize the work of US Count Votes. This important scientific analysis should be leading all other headlines on Buzzflash, Bush Watch, Air America, Daily Kos...not to mention the New York Times, CBS, ABC and the rest of the mainstream media. Alas, even the wonderful blog by John Conyers has not yet covered this report.

Let’s make sure the riff-raff can’t vote: Conyers’ blog does

direct our attention to important developments in Georgia, Indiana, and other states. In order to combat the alleged epidemic of non-existent registered voters (a "spin point" the G.O.P. has pushed for many months), Georgia will now tighten identification requirements. The result, of course, will be depressed turn-out among minorities and the elderly.

— Georgia would be the first state not to permit an alternative to a photo ID, such as a signed affidavit.

— another provision of the bill, supposedly designed to prevent voter fraud, would totally eliminate the requirement that a voter seeking an absentee ballot state a reason for wanting it, even though there is far greater concern about the use of absentee ballots for fraudulent purposes. If measures like this pass, it becomes all the more imperative to enact voting reform legislation that I and others have introduced to protect voting rights.

— "Neither Georgia’s secretary of state nor the secretary of state of Indiana, where a voter identification measure has been under consideration, could point to an allegation of voter identification fraud."

— The AARP has observed that more than a third of Georgians over 75 lack a valid driver’s license.

— The bill would have a disproportionate impact on rural voters, given that Georgia’s 159 counties have only 53 driver’s license offices, and ten of them are in metropolitan Atlanta.

Readers of Cannonfire will recall that I’ve been predicting this very development. Indeed, the whole point of the American Center for Voting Rights — the now-notorious "non-partisan" Republican front group — has been to whip up hysteria over the misleading issue of false registrations.

As we have noted earlier: Anyone can send in a fake registration form. If such acts have indeed taken place (the ACVR cites unofficial reports of registration forms bearing flagrantly bogus names), the listed party affiliation does not necessarily tell us who to blame. No evidence indicates that a single "fake" voter ever cast a ballot for Kerry; the exit poll discrepancy offers a profound argument against this notion.

We thus come to that famous question: Cui bono? Who benefits?

A Democratic registration form bearing a ridiculous "joke" name can only buttress the arguments of Republicans who favor the enforcement of strict photo ID requirements at the polls. Such requirements will make participation difficult for the poorest sectors of our electorate. Many poor people have expired driver’s licenses, or no licenses at all — and many may not relish the prospect of acrimonious interaction with cops at the poll booth.

(By way of comparison: My local library switched from a policy of allowing anyone access to the internet to a system which allows only official library card holders to surf the web. The result: Drastically reduced usage of the computers. Since cards go only to those with addresses and photo ID, the homeless lost much-needed access to email accounts and websites helpful to the poor.)

By asking "cui bono?," we can see the outlines of the scheme. Through the simple expedient of filling out a few bogus registration forms, far-sighted Republican operatives will now be able to fulfill their long-held goal of keeping the "riff-raff" away from the engines of democracy.

http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2005...



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> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Sunday April 3 - 22:03 - Posted by 8781dfc2c2bded8d...

You took the wrong pill!

It was definitely "Chatty Dem" theory. As a conservative, I went to my polling place, avoided the bright camera lights and sloppily dressed libs screaming "don’t be stupid voting for Bush" only 18ft. from the front door. I thought they had to be like a mile away or something.

Anywho, when I emerged, other liberal troglodytes tried to eschew from me my vote. I told them to get lost, it’s private, and my choice.

I’ll bet, and be right, that many closet conservatives did exactly the same thing. I had to keep my mouth shut at lunch about my choices, as it would always become a "call out the conservative" type of affair and I would have to answer for everything Bush/Cheney/Rove ever did in life. I obviously could not, so I kept my mouth shut and nodded like a filthy liberal, knowing all to well I was betraying myself in order to stay employed.

Vote Alteration is the exact opposite of Occam’s Razor. Vote Alteration only appeals to losers and conspiracy theorists.

In 61% of the elections since I was born, a conservative was put in office. 39% went to liberals. Oh, and a fine choice of liberals were offered to us: Johnson, Carter, Clin-ton. Do you really think with choices like these, or worse the liberal choices that "didn’t make the grade," that you have a freakin’ chance?

Thank you for electing Howard Dean to the DMC chair — and saving 2008 for Hillary. Another 4 conservative years in 2008 methinks.




> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Sunday April 3 - 22:06 - Posted by 8781dfc2c2bded8d...

i meant, of course, DNC.

Not the rap group.



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Sunday April 3 - 22:25 - Posted by 1bb13b8fcb2a855b...

Off course your post does not address the meat or the meaning of the article. Your observations may be true but they are set aside as a cause by the election data and the polls.

Re asserting, that it is true does not mean it is true.



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Monday April 4 - 07:53 - Posted by 44446083b5a2f148...

(sigh)

The stats do not support the "chatty democrat" Hypothesis (or the "shy Republican" hypothesis).

Your anecdotal report is not "evidence" either. What does this have to do with exit poll employees picking voters AT RANDOM to complete the exit poll survey?

There was no difference in overall refusal rates between Republican and Democratic states, btw.

Sincerely,

STOP_George of Newsclip Autopsy.



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Monday April 4 - 11:06 - Posted by 89979f932b486dc1...

> You took the wrong pill!

There is another name for the "Chatty Dem" theory, it’s the "Embarassed Republican" theory.

Thank you for confessing. Your admission will be looked upon favorably when the war crimes, corruption and plutocracy of the present administration are eventually investigated.

If you were smarter, you would realize that your statements neither refute nor cast doubt on the seriousness of the statistical discrepencies of the 2004 election. The FDA approves drugs with less statistical evidence.

— an independent



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Tuesday April 5 - 23:45 - Posted by ba518257ff2e557d...

Hey idiot;

What does eschew mean?

A lying liberal



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Monday April 4 - 14:41 - Posted by 1210d5dacbf20844...

We all know that there was a massive vote fraud. There is so much evidence that it is impossible to refute. Not only is there a smoking gun, but there is a whole room full of smoking guns.

Soooo, what is anyone going to do about it? Nothing. You are a powerless lot.

Enjoy the ride. It may be your last one.




> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Monday April 4 - 14:51 - Posted by 1210d5dacbf20844...

Hey Yanks ... vote fraud happened in many forms. Everyone in the world knows that.

So what are you going to do? Live with it. You can’t do otherwise. You don’t have half the character that other countries have when their elections go bad.

Grab your remote, a bag of fat snacks, a case of beer or some drug laced diet pop, and a cryin’ towel and watch the soaps like all Americans do. Get back to real livin’.




> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Monday April 4 - 17:43 - Posted by d42fec9dbadfce25...

Only those opposed to democracy want to substitute exit-polls for election returns. And to the deep-thinker who posted on this string with a bunch of tired anti-American stereotypes, do you have anything to add other than rank xenophobia?




> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Monday April 4 - 18:13 - Posted by ef4630a3ecf0a11d...

Well I already knew that Bush and Co were opposed to democracy. Guess that’s why they were opposed to the election returns in the Ukraine initially and preferred the exit-polls.



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Tuesday April 5 - 21:15 - Posted by f2a742d6c5082d1d...

You cannot disprove, You cannot win the argument so you insult. How sad.

The fact that the exit polls were so far out in only the precincts without an audit trail, where the software (which could easily intercept, delete or add votes) was written by GOP supporters that announced ahead of time that they would deliver the votes of the crucial state to the president and in ONLY those places had a descrepancy between the presidential and senetorial election by a statistically almost impossible amount is so suspiscious enough to be evidence of fraud beyond reasonable doubt in my opinion.



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Wednesday April 6 - 04:24 - Posted by 1adf310020454c7d...

’Science prove that vote fraud is real!’

Conservatives do not believe in science. They only believe in superstitions and make believe.




> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Wednesday April 6 - 23:23 - Posted by 36128142307874e0...

You must mean religion (?)



> Science proves that vote fraud is real!
Friday April 8 - 06:03 - Posted by 367cc8941cc300bc...

In the words of Joseph Stalin, "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything." These very words are haunting us in the U.S. today. It is not so much whether you voted conservative or liberal, it is a matter of did your vote count the way you wanted it to. With the outcome of the 2004 Election being extremely crazy i.e. Wyoming had a 106% turnout, many precincts in Ohio had more votes that voters for a total of 93,000 extra votes, one really has to wonder what happened. Combine this with the E-voting machine vendors like Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia Pacific, Accenture and SAIC-companies that either are heavily owned by ex-CIA agents, Generals, Admirals, or ties to Enron, or busy renewing $195,000,000 contracts with the Saudi Royal Navy and it is very easy to question the authenticity of this last election. The Exit Polls were off that is a fact, but can you trust these companies with your vote whether or not it is liberal or conservative. There are bills in the U.S. Congress requiring more security and a paper trail and Americans need to get behind them in order to make our next election process more secure. What it requires is that Americans wake up, get off the couch and understand that yes, someone could have rigged the election and very easily as well...and for those who believe it didn’t happen this time...then for future elections. The real issue is do you want your vote to be privatized by corporations with agendas? Before you say anything about "conspiracy theory" research e-voting machines and these companies first.







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