I really have doubts whether exit polls accurately predict the outcome. It assumes a lot. For example, people who vote later in the day might not reflect the pattern seen earlier in the day. Also, those actual early exit polls might spur the opposition to vote later that day. Also, there is no controlling the actual polltakers, they might feel more comfortable talking to women vs men, younger vs. older, single vs. married couples, white vs minority or all vice versa. These past two elections were so contentious and turned out so many more votes that I don’t think it fit previous voting patterns.
I really have doubts whether exit polls accurately predict the outcome. It assumes a lot. For example, people who vote later in the day might not reflect the pattern seen earlier in the day. Also, those actual early exit polls might spur the opposition to vote later that day. Also, there is no controlling the actual polltakers, they might feel more comfortable talking to women vs men, younger vs. older, single vs. married couples, white vs minority or all vice versa. These past two elections were so contentious and turned out so many more votes that I don’t think it fit previous voting patterns.