> Electors across US break traditional pro forma ritual to use electoral college to protest election
22 December 2004, 20:17
The fact that there is no scientific, mathematical or statistical consensus on the validity of the exit polls has put the sitaution into a stalemate. It doesn’t matter who is right or wrong on the mathematics and statistics at this point, because in order for those of us who might be inclined to take to the streets, a genuine clear and convincing consensus from the scientific, mathematical, and statistical community is needed.
I am a lawyer and have been for 27 years. I look at the situation just like I would if I were appealing a case. In law, there is something called the "harmless error" rule. It is what every lawyer fears who is appealing a case. It assumes there is no such thing as a perfect trial. It essentially says that in order to win on appeal, you must be able to convince the appellate court that there is a really good reason to believe that mistakes or errors made by the judge or jury likely caused the rendition of an improper verdict or decision.
Using this analogy to the present voting situation, if we are to convince the public at large that voting mistakes, error,and/or fraud caused Kerry to lose the election he actually won, we must have a clear and convincing consensus by the mathematical, statistical and scientific communities that such is the case. We simply do not have that now. Right now we are being killed by the electoral equivalent of the "harmless error" rule.
I believe such a consensus is possible, however. By re-polling Ohio now. I am told by a statistician on Mystery Pollster that it would take the polling of about 16,000 people in Ohio to basically be so accurate that most scientists, statisticians, and mathematicians could not reasonably disagree. They also believe that such a poll is not that unbearably expensive. I propose using three organizations to do one third of the polling each — Zogby, Harris, and Gallup — and have the results of the poll made public immediately.
I have asked MoveOn to help raise the money to fund such a poll. So far, I have not had any response. I believe such a poll would vindicate your work and shut up your critics for good. I believe such a poll is necessary now for the sake of the country and our democracy. Please help me turn this idea into reality.
The fact that there is no scientific, mathematical or statistical consensus on the validity of the exit polls has put the sitaution into a stalemate. It doesn’t matter who is right or wrong on the mathematics and statistics at this point, because in order for those of us who might be inclined to take to the streets, a genuine clear and convincing consensus from the scientific, mathematical, and statistical community is needed.
I am a lawyer and have been for 27 years. I look at the situation just like I would if I were appealing a case. In law, there is something called the "harmless error" rule. It is what every lawyer fears who is appealing a case. It assumes there is no such thing as a perfect trial. It essentially says that in order to win on appeal, you must be able to convince the appellate court that there is a really good reason to believe that mistakes or errors made by the judge or jury likely caused the rendition of an improper verdict or decision.
Using this analogy to the present voting situation, if we are to convince the public at large that voting mistakes, error,and/or fraud caused Kerry to lose the election he actually won, we must have a clear and convincing consensus by the mathematical, statistical and scientific communities that such is the case. We simply do not have that now. Right now we are being killed by the electoral equivalent of the "harmless error" rule.
I believe such a consensus is possible, however. By re-polling Ohio now. I am told by a statistician on Mystery Pollster that it would take the polling of about 16,000 people in Ohio to basically be so accurate that most scientists, statisticians, and mathematicians could not reasonably disagree. They also believe that such a poll is not that unbearably expensive. I propose using three organizations to do one third of the polling each — Zogby, Harris, and Gallup — and have the results of the poll made public immediately.
I have asked MoveOn to help raise the money to fund such a poll. So far, I have not had any response. I believe such a poll would vindicate your work and shut up your critics for good. I believe such a poll is necessary now for the sake of the country and our democracy. Please help me turn this idea into reality.