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> Collapse of U.S. Economy Imminent

8 February 2006, 21:30

I think that "Chicken Little" has a lot of current day friends. While it is true that there ARE major problems with the economy, other countries’ economies, political risks both internal and around the world...it is NOT true that these problems are more intractible than they once were nor even worse than they once were. People have been doomsdaying for decades - the late 19th Century was filled with doomsday prophecies and economic panics that spelled the end of civilization - according to some pundits. Even as the 20th Century played out, how possibly could we still be living now having gone through 4 major wars, the birth of the nuclear bomb, the cold war, Communism terrorism run amok... Re: the points noted in the "Collapse..." article.

1) Doubtful. Iran is doing a lot of posturing - trying to assume the mantle of Islamic leadership...But as of yet, it’s only recent infraction of world peace was its war with Iraq. A peaceful use nuclear enrichment program that they are currently pursuing is shared by many nations that do not have nuclear weapons. And, if Iran does cross the line to nuclear weaponry, they do have their nuclear armed neghbor Israel to contend with. Iran is not likely to provoke or justify a pre-emptive strike by western nations knowing that western nations would do so with full public support IF Iran could be proven to have developed nuclear weapons and deployment systems. Unless Iran develops such weaponry, they won’t be invaded - despite their current rhetoric.

2) Snow’s warning is the typical political give and take between the Treasury and the Congress - who must authorize a new debt limit. This has been done dozens of times since WWII days. Even as I do not like unbalanced budgets and a growing large national debt, if in fact the United States financial condition is put into a financial statement format [ala a household or corporation], it is easily argued that the USA has a low debt ratio and could actually become far wealthier assuming a greater debt percentage with respect to the economic output.

3) If there is such a Homeland Security secret stratagem about bank lock boxes in place, I’d like to see a scintilla of evidence to verify it. Gossip by a bank teller is...gossip by a bank teller.

4) It is true that there are miltary advisers now being utilized in FEMA - to increase efficiency of their operations. And, despite some government officials have called for a military led emergency agency, it won’t happen. FEMA will learn by past mistakes and improve. Actually, FEMA’s recent responses to hurricanes in Florida and Louisiana were faster and better managed than the analogous effots that occurred in the Clinton administration - but there was no hyped Katrina then. As for reviving detention centers ala the FDR days, it won’t happen. That’s one reason why dealing with illegals is so difficult, BTW.

5) Actually the most repressive presidents [re: Constitutional rights] were Lincoln and FDR. Given what’s already happened via terroism and what the current Islamic terrorists are wealthy enough, capable enough and fanatic enough to do, the Patriot Act has been a reasonably measured response. It is probable that no more than a few percent of ’innocent’ people will ever be affected by it. Although, if you are a part of an Islamic terrorist effort, the chances of you getting nabbed went up considerably.

Summary: The economy is NOT broken, we are NOT at the threshold of total ruin. The Chinese government are likely to continue investing in Treasury securities - as opposed to their own stock market which has gone done about 15%/year for tha last couple of years. If the Iranians "dump" their dollars they’ll be spending them on something - that something will likely help not hurt western economies. IF a western coalition attacked Iran, no nuclear weapons need be used - China would NOT have a nuclear cloud floating over them. And, the chicken littles of the world are, guess what. wrong again. Buy gold or .22 ammo in bulk if you want to, but my advice would be a good assortment of stocks from US, Canada, Japan, England, Australia and Germany. I’m estimating about a 15% growth in the MSCI World & S&P 500 indexes in 2006.