Home > Election Fraud 2004: Debate rages on over exit polls vs. election results

Election Fraud 2004: Debate rages on over exit polls vs. election results

by Open-Publishing - Sunday 15 May 2005
3 comments

A just released analysis confirms pollster Warren Mitofsky’s assertion that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of George Bush in Ohio on Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that there was fraud in the Ohio election.

The research team, led by Dr. Fritz Scheuren, used more detailed
information from the exit polls than previous studies. The team was able to
use this precinct-level information while preserving ballot secrecy at a local
level.

"The more detailed information allowed us to see that voting patterns were
consistent with past results and consistent with exit poll results across
precincts. It looks more like Bush voters were refusing to participate and
less like systematic fraud," Dr. Scheuren said.

Ohio Exit Polls ’Not a Smoking Gun’ for Fraud

The persistence of credible hypotheses of election fraud, six months after the election, underscores the fragility of the U.S. electoral system. US Count Votes continues its systematic statistical study of the discrepancy between the Edison-Mitofsky exit polls and November’s reported presidential election results.

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) today has released a new report, demonstrating that data from the Edison/Mitofsky analysis is consistent with the hypothesis of a corrupted vote count, and inconsistent with the competing idea that Bush voters were under-sampled in the poll. Using numerical modeling techniques to simulate the effect of polling bias, NEDA scientists are able to reproduce signature patterns in the Edison/Mitofsky data by incorporating a general shift in the official vote tally in the model.

Most telling is the fact that the highest participation rates and the peak disparity between poll and official returns both occurred in precincts where Bush made his strongest showing. This feature of the data is inconsistent with the Edison/Mitofsky assumption that polling
bias was responsible for the gap.

complete report- Hypotheses of Fraud Remain Credible

Forum posts

  • NO DOUBT.....W. IS A THIEF!!!

    • NO DOUBT ... YOU’RE AN IDIOT!

    • NO DOUBT IT WAS STOLEN.

      PROVE IT TO YOURSELF.

      DO THE MATH!

      Here is an Excel Interactive Election Model which you can download and run.

      It’s a polling data warehouse and analytic engine which tells us why the pre-election and exit polls all confirm that Kerry won the election - easily.

      http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/InteractiveElectionSimulation.xls

      Analyze a 200 trial simulation of 2004 pre-election state and 18 national polls as well as 51 post-election state exit polls and the National Exit Poll.

      See why the Final National exit poll time line which matched to a corrupted vote and had Bush a 51-48% winner (1:25pm Nov.3,2004, 13880 respondents) is bogus (the "How Voted in 2000" demographic weightings are mathematically impossible). And see why the 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents) time line is close to the truth (Kerry won by 51-48%)

      A challenge to those who still believe Bush got more votes than Kerry:
      Play what-if. See if you can come up with just ONE plausible Bush win scenario.