Latham puts team in driver’s seat

By Dennis Shanahan

MARK Latham has lifted Labor into the victory lane for the first time since the election campaign began, with an egalitarian schools policy and a win over John Howard in the leaders debate.

Labor has now opened a narrow two-party-preferred margin over the Howard Government as the Coalition’s primary support has fallen and Mr Latham’s personal standing has lifted.

The ALP’s lead depends heavily on second preferences from the minor parties in a week when the major parties grappled over environmental policy and the Greens announced a preference deal with Labor.

In the first national Newspoll taken since Mr Latham’s successful debate against the Prime Minister more than a week ago the Coalition’s support has dropped on primary votes and the Labor leader’s support has risen on preferred prime minister.

According to the Newspoll survey taken last weekend, exclusively for The Australian, the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped three percentage points to 43 per cent and Labor’s has risen one to 41 per cent.

After second preferences Labor has an election-winning lead of 52.5 per cent to the Coalition’s 47.5 per cent compared with the second preferences at the 2001 election of 51 per cent for the Government and 49 per cent for the ALP.

It is the first time since the election campaign began more than three weeks ago that Labor has had a clear lead on second preferences.

Labor’s jump in support after preferences follows a fall in the Coalition’s primary vote and a rise in support for the Greens and others.

The poll follows a Newspoll of the 12 most marginal seats last week, which showed that Mr Latham’s personal standing had risen after the leaders debate, but at that stage had not translated into more primary votes. Thanks to preferences, however, the two-party-preferred vote in those marginals lifted Labor from 48 per cent to 49.5 per cent while the Coalition’s fell from 52 to 50.5 per cent in the previous two weeks.

Mr Latham was widely judged to have won the debate with Mr Howard on Sunday, September 12, which was not included in the previous Newspoll survey period.

This week, Mr Latham launched the Labor education policy aimed at giving state schools more funding, taking funding from the richest private schools and giving it to the poorest non-government schools.

When the Coalition finished in front on primary votes the previous week, the bombing of the Australian embassy in Jakarta had had appeared to neutralise Labor’s big family and tax package.

According to the Newspoll, the primary vote and second preferences have virtually returned to what they were before the Prime Minister announced the election.

On primary votes, the Coalition and Labor are at levels they averaged for some time before the election, although Labor is ahead on second preferences.

Satisfaction with the way John Howard is doing his job has dropped slightly from 53 to 51 per cent, while it is virtually unchanged for Mr Latham as Opposition Leader on 53 per cent.

But on the issue of who would make the better prime minister, Mr Latham has made ground on Mr Howard, despite a fall after the first week of the campaign.

Last weekend, Mr Howard’s rating as the better prime minister fell from 50 to 47 per cent while Mr Latham’s jumped from 33 to 37 per cent.

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