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Scientific Analysis Suggests US Presidential Vote Counts May Have Been Altered

Thursday 31 March 2005

Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts May Have Been Altered
Group of University Professors Urges Investigation of 2004 Election

- http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnaly...
US Count Votes
March 31st , 2005

Officially, President Bush won November’s election by 2.5%, yet exit polls showed Kerry winning by 3% [1] . According to a report to be released today by a group of university statisticians, the odds of a discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election results happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.

In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But it did.

Two alternatives remain. Either something was wrong with the exit polling, or something was wrong with the vote count.

Exit polls have been used to verify the integrity of elections in the Ukraine, in Latin America, in Germany, and elsewhere. Yet in November 2004, the U.S. exit poll discrepancy was much more than normal exit poll error (and similar to that of the invalid Ukraine election.[2] )

In a recent survey of US members of the world’s oldest and largest computer society, The Association for Computing Machinery, 95% opposed software driven un-auditable voting machines [3] , of the type that now count at least 30% of U.S. votes. Today’s electronic vote-counting machines are not required to include basic safeguards that would prevent and detect machine or human caused errors, be they innocent or deliberate. [4]

The consortium that conducted the presidential exit polls, Edison/Mitofsky, issued a report in January suggesting that the discrepancy between election results and exit polls occurred because Bush voters were more reticent than Kerry voters in response to pollsters.

The authors of this newly released scientific study "Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Poll Discrepancies" consider this "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis to be highly implausible, based on extensive analysis of Edison/Mitofsky’s exit poll data. They conclude, /“The required pattern of exit poll participation by Kerry and Bush voters to satisfy the exit poll data defies empirical experience and common sense under any assumed scenario.”/

A state-by-state analysis of the discrepancy between exit polls and official election results shows highly improbable skewing of the election results, overwhelmingly biased towards the President.

The report concludes, “ We believe that the absence of any statistically-plausible explanation for the discrepancy between Edison/Mitofsky’s exit poll data and the official presidential vote tally is an unanswered question of vital national importance that needs thorough investigation.”

Ph.D. statisticians in America who have seen this group’s preliminary exit poll study have not refuted it. This new study is a much more comprehensive an analysis of the exit poll discrepancies.

The report is available on-line:

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf

An executive summary of the report by is available at:

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_summary.pdf

*Contributors and Supporters of the Report include:*

*Josh Mitteldorf*, PhD - Temple University Statistics Department

*Steven F. Freeman*, PhD - Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania

*Brian Joiner*, PhD - Prof. of Statistics (ret) University of Wisconsin

*Frank Stenger*, PhD - Professor, School of Computing, University of Utah

*Richard G. Sheehan*, PhD -Professor, Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame

*Paul F. Velleman*, PhD - Associate Prof., Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University

*Victoria Lovegren*, PhD - Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University

*Campbell** B. Read*, PhD - Prof. Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University

*Jonathan Simon*, J.D., National Ballot Integrity Project

*Ron Baiman, *PhD* *- Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois at Chicago

Forum posts

  • This is something conscious people have been aware of since Nov. 3. So glad to see it once again in print with evidence to back it up. The question now is what to do about it. The apathy in America is simply overwhelming and the media controls the news. Any ideas of the next step to take, or are we going to have to wait for Dubya to be caught in a sex scandal before the average US dummy will pay attention? Or has that already happened and been glossed over?

    • If a homosexual prostitute with connections to the president’s advisor and posing as a reporter with Secret Service clearance to be within feet of the president and whose sole purpose was to throw softball questions in order to save the "president" from his own ineptitude is not a scandal, what is? It’s just that the maintream media has been bought and the general public has been brainwashed.

    • To those who have been attentive to the exit polling and vote discrepancies, this report comes as no surprise, though it is most welcome. What has most disheartened me have been the words of Democratic leaders in the House and Senate referring to Bush having "won" even at a time when the results in Ohio were still being contested. Their words confirmed the myth that Bush actually received more votes than Kerry and is therefore the duly elected president. How much more helpful to the public it would have been for them to refer to the discrepancies and thus suggest that the Ohio (and Florida) votes have anomalies that call their legitimacy into question.
      I will forward this link to these "leaders."

    • Oops...I remembered about that one right after I posted the above. Soooo, what the h-ll is going to bring this regime down???

    • Bush has won the election. Lick your wounds and get over it, you have another four years of Jr.

    • You think Bush won, go lick his ass and get over yourself.

  • "True believers" think it a virtue to ignore reality if it contradicts their beilefs.
    Bush has now NOT been elected president twice.
    The US economy is on a rapid decline, as the government prints out exponentially increasing amounts of its soon to be "play" money.
    As our rights even to have our votes counted are denied, along with many other previously assumed human rightgs, the US is beginning to feel like Nazi Germany in the ’30s...
    I only hope I can have the sense to ESCAPE to a free country, while I still can!!

  • Congressional Republicans and Democrats kept repeating ’there is no smoking gun’ when the exit polls were exactly that.

    from Oct 2004, NY Times- Exit Polls to Protect the Vote
    http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=4196

    The exit polls are the canary in the mine shaft.... CNN was even caught changing their exit polls at 1am election night- this combined with ’Uncle Tom’ Blackwell’s intentional vote suppression, diebold central tabulators, and verified recount tampering leaves no doubt that if a fair re-vpte were held in Ohio (and even the entire USA) Bush would not have won. No Doubt.

    Yet we don’t have a single congressional representative speaking up and calling it fraud? Are they all afraid for their lives? It’s possible, but then why don’t they spread out in different states and speak up at once? Congress needs to be thrown out on their asses.

    Anyone thinking that we can vote them out in 2006 or ’08 is just as delusional as a Bush Believer. There will be no fair elections with James Baker heading the election reform commission. Cynthia McKinney, Dennis Kucinich... Where are you?!

    • Maybe someday in the distant future, when George W. is an old man on his deathbed, his religious convictions will convince him to confess his knowlege and participation in the theft of his two presidential elections. I’m convinced he really IS religious and believes what he’s done is devine and justified. So maybe the truth will come out of the horse’s mouth. Not that it will help any damage to our democracy being done now.- Pat

    • Pat, I doubt it. Despots rarely if ever feel culpable for anything. And religion is just another means of control and insulation for them.

    • It was all rigged by both sides, if you can’t see that by now...They have been working in tadium for the last 15+ years to keep Americans divided over silly dubious party lines. Both parties are in on this, the few that aren’t corrupt don’t get re-elected (it takes lots of money to be in power in AMERICA) There is no right press or left press, just what they want you to perceive. We have all been sold.

      A nation divided cannot stand against the government.

      ps, Bush is not a christain (everything he speaks goes against the true word, never claims Jesus died and rose, claims all religions have the same god, etc) and nor are those so called religious leaders (who voted for them) total false teachings, leading the sheep astray while they drink their wine in their mansions and drive their big fancy cars, I think you know who their god is

    • I have to fight feelings of contempt for ALL Americans who refuse to even consider
      the possibility (i.e.FACT) that the 2004 election was stolen.

      For me this is THE issue. After all, nothing else will matter if the GOP can just steal any election they desire, as is now the case.

      In fact, I bet the GOP is counting on vote fraud to keep Schwarzennegger in the governor’s mansion in CA, even as more and more people are becoming disillusioned with The Corporator’s tireless servicing of The Elite, and trashing of ordinary working people. And his constant lies.

      Arnold may be losing in the polls bigtime in 2006, but unless changes are made in the voting system, count on him to pull out an "amazing, unexpected" victory against all odds (and polls),
      once Diebold & others have finished their dirty work.

      As Gore Vidal said recently, "The Republic is DEAD".

      The only question now is, can it be revived?

    • You are so very right bush is no christian i will even go a step futher and say that he doesn’t even believe in god, the bible speaks of this type of person when it talks about a wolf in sheeps clothing,a christian would not attack a country based on lies,there is an old saying that says action speaks louder than words,people tend to believe that if someone calls theirself a christian than it must be true,but the truth is some often make this claim because it helps them get what they want or to get where they want to be.I wish people would realize that you will know them by the fruit they bear, not by their words.

    • It is also unchristian for you to judge him. You don’t know what his beliefs are. You don’t have all the facts and even if you did it still isn’t YOUR place to judge a man that you don’t know. What power has been bestowed upon you to make you worthy of this judgment? What real proof do you have that Bush isn’t a Christian? You say that a Christian would not attack a country based on lies. Would you rather him leave a man in power who was systematicaly, and brutally killing his own people? As merely citizens we don’t have all the information that administration had when they made their dicision to invade Iraq so it is unfair for us to judge based on the very limited information that we have.

    • Get some facts about the U.S.s role in the Saddam years, how the C.I.A. armed him and trained his men to kill the Kurds, and the Iranians. You dare come here and bring your right wing propaganda and refuse to educate yourself to the facts and the history of the U.S.s immoral role in Saddam’s power in Iraq. You expect everyone to listin to your ignorant comments and not think you are a fool. Do some reading independently of your Repbulican or military brainwashed rant. You insult us with your foolish and twisted concept of history and what is really happening in Iraq. You must be about 5 years old?

    • We were talking about George W. Bush. He is not responsible for arming Saddam.

    • We were talking about George W. Bush. He is not the one responsible for arming Saddam.

    • We were talking about George W. Bush and he is NOT responsible for arming Saddam.

    • We were talking about George W. Bush and he is NOT responsible for arming Saddam.

  • Bush......Kerry.....what is the difference? Both are sellouts to the New World Order and both are controlled by Skull & Bones. Anyone who believes the last election was real needs some psychiatric help. It was not. In fact Ralph Naders advisor was a member of Skull & Bones. So all three major candidates are controlled by a small group of men who happen to belong to a satanic organization hellbent on bringing the US to it’s knees in order to bring about the New World Order. They have to make the US government appear so corrupt and criminal that the US population will scream that something must be done........and they will introduce the American Union........that is the plan.

  • Isn’t it funny that diebold also received an exclusive contract to handle all the ATMs in saudi arabia just last october. Hopefully saudis get a paper receipt with their deposits.

    Alex Pelosi’s new film "Diary of a Political Tourist" catches a tipsy Congressman Peter King making a comment at a White House function before the election had been finished that, "It’s already over. The Election’s over. We Won."

    When Pelosi asks, "How do you know that?" King replies, "It’s all over but the counting. And we’ll take care of the counting."

    The 2004 US Elections:
    The Mother of all Vote Frauds

    http://whatreallyhappened.com/2004votefraud.html

    I guess the joke isn’t on republicans, but americans. Long live the american aristocracy!

  • More proof of a "fixed" election....we know it, have known it..where is the MSM, where is the FBI, CIA, Justice Department, National Guard, State troopers, Police...anybody? He is not the President, yet we can’t get rid of him..be prepared for Republican Neo-con’s iron fist rule for years to come.
    The only people backing this man is a handful other rich people who are profitting from eternal wars and the misery of the poor and "middle class"...and fanatical right-wing fringe groups..the rest of us want him out.. He has no authority, every bill and all legislation he has signed is illegal...is it all up to us then?

    • Does anyone remember Clint Curtis? He flat out gave swarn testimony about how he wrote a computer program to do a 51%, 49% vote switch.

      A link to the video of SWORN TESTIMONY

      http://getthewordoutwith.blogspot.com/2005/03/wow-watch-clint-curtis-spill-beans-on.html

      And the Brad Blog, at

      www.bradblog.com

    • Last time I checked the FBI was helping cover it up.

    • Hello, the Republican fascist corporations own our evoting system: hook, line and sinker with money stolen from your Social Security Trust Fund…to the tune of 60 million votes and over 29 million dollars transferred to off shore accounts in the Cook Islands to rig Ohio in the 2004 election. A stacked deck, indeed…I am ashamed of you, Barbara…a legend in your very own beautiful mind and who we only see when Junior falls below 45%! Does George still have “mommy dearest” issues? School is over...time to grab your crayons and go home, George.

      The Neo-fascist Republicans not only HACK the votes…they even count their own HACKED votes in secrecy and then in a recount, they HACK the vote numbers again…to comply with the original HACKED printouts…Totally barbaric. Totally George W. Bush. The Zenith of Treason...

      We are way past impeachment...Per Ann Coulter: Firing squad or Guillotine?...

    • Screw Bush, he’s an asshole.

    • You’re the asshole

    • No, you’re an asshole.

    • Joseph Stalin said, it isn’t who gets the votes, but who counts the votes that matters....ushco being Stalinists have heeded their mentor’s lessons well.

    • That’s their new job, covering Bushco’s ass....

      A very interesting documentary is being shown of Canadian t.v., and elsewhere I would urge any truth seekers to obtain a copy,
      "C.I.A.: America’s secret warriors"
      Blowback Productions
      601 W. 26th Street 1776
      New York, N.Y. 10001
      $20.00 check and your address along with title.

      This is a very extensive piece about the C.I.A. and their crime spree, after you see this if you still think the C.I.A. should not be disbanned and the prople involved punished, then you should support organized crime, the maffia costra nostra, the drug lords, mass murder, dictator, pimp, and every scumbag ever known, because this is what this organization is all about, the facts are all there for anyone who wants the truth. Their history past and present is SHOCKING.

  • NATIONAL NEWS:
    Veterans Group Calls on Congress to Impeach George W. Bush and Richard Cheney
    SOURCE: Veterans For Peace, Inc.

    "It is clear that George Bush does not intend to change course in an effort to right this great wrong," said Veterans For Peace president David Cline. "He has had enough time in his second term to begin a shift and he has not. It is time to remove him from office."

    ST. LOUIS—On March 30, a national veterans’ organization called for the removal of President George W. Bush and Vice-President Richard Cheney for crimes the group charges were committed during the invasion and occupation of Iraq.
    In a letter sent to each member of the US House and Senate, Veterans For Peace (VFP) stated that “...This administration’s war on Iraq, in addition to being increasingly unpopular among Americans, is an unmistakable violation of our Constitution and federal law which you have sworn to uphold. In our system, the remedy for such high crimes is clear: this administration must be impeached.”

    David Cline, a decorated Vietnam War combat veteran and VFP president, said in a prepared statement to the press, "We do not make this call lightly and as former members of the US armed forces, we take our responsibilities as citizens very seriously. For that reason we believe that when our government conducts a war of aggression on Iraq and commits a growing and appalling series of what must legally be considered war crimes and crimes against humanity in the execution of that war, it violates Article VI of the US Constitution, the War Crimes Act of 1996 (18 U.S.C. § 2441), and numerous international treaties which are legally binding on our nation."

    Cline continued, "We are not the first group to call for impeachment. We have decided to add our voice to the call. All the reasons given for the invasion have shown themselves to be half-truths or misleading. The conflict continues to drag on taking the lives of our soldiers and innocent Iraqis. It is clear that George Bush does not intend to change course in an effort to right this great wrong. He has had enough time in his second term to begin a shift and he has not. It is time to remove him from office."

    Veterans For Peace is seeking individual and organizational supporters to work jointly on the effort to impeach the resident.

    True Americans...Take heed of your country!

    falcon

  • Thank God we have some sober Americans not afraid to keep addressing this issue. The election was stolen, the election was stolen, the election was stolen. I will never ever quit stating the obvious. But my greatest sadness, and anger, is not with the Republican henchmen who facilitated the heist, but with my fellow Democrats, including many of our "leaders," who scoff at those of us objecting to the election fraud of 2004.

    I thank Steven Freeman and the other academicians who pursued this study, as I also salute the courageous congressmen and congresswomen, and the lone Senator Boxer, who fought for us on January 6, 2005. As far as I’m concerned, the rest of the Democratic Party, and John Kerry in particular, have been AWOL on this issue since November 3, 2004.

    Someday, somehow, we have got to force the U.S. government to let us have free and fair elections at home. I don’t see that happening under the current one-party system. Those guys are never going to quit stealing elections when it is so damned easy for them to get away with it. Why should they?

    And that is why we have to kick the current Democratic office-holders in the butt and tell them that unless they take election fraud seriously we will not be sending them money nor volunteering our precious time. If a Democratic candidate wants my support from now on, he or she is going to have to acknowledge that Republican election fraud is a serious issue.

    • Bush is much more than a wolf in sheep’s clothing..he’s the antichrist. Do the numbers and do the math. It’s all 666. Just do the search on the net. He’s it man. Religious...What a joke. He serves the black,the oil,death..he just loves all black and loves leaving us in the dark. All is dark. All is devil.

    • RE: Religious...what a joke. You call him the antichrist. Well, that’s a religious reference. You say he loves everything black. Well, I can think of something black he could care less about- Black americans

    • Of course it’s a religious reference just like he does all the time. But all is twisted and duh he doesn’t ’love’ all black, he feeds on it. Stop your twisted rhetoric. You get the message. Of course he hates blacks and all else and everyone that even says "geez George what are you doing". He truly hates and doesn’t give a hoot about one and all issues that face the destruction of our planet. He is the antichrist period.

  • Of course it’s a religious reference just like he does all the time. But all is twisted and duh he doesn’t ’love’ all black, he feeds on it. Stop the twisted rhetoric. You get the message. Of course he hates blacks and all else and everyone that even says "geez George what are you doing". He truly hates and doesn’t give a hoot about one and all issues that face the destruction of our planet. He is the antichrist period and is laughing his way to hell.

  • What is with all of you people? Do you listen to yourselves? You all sound nuts. It is obvious to anyone who has ligitimately studied politics that none of you seem to have any idea as to how the American political system actually works (in reality). If you are all so concerned then I would first recomend that you spend a few years doing some research then take action. Writing on websites to a bunch of people that already (for some reason) agree with you isn’t getting anything done about the problem.

    • The ONLY way to fix the fixed elections is to refuse to vote...anyone who knows that these elections are rigged must realize that to go vote is just lending your name to phony statistics. The way to expose this is to not vote. When the numbers at the polls get so small then the problems will have to be addressed, not until. For everyone who participates in rigged elections you are enablers. The vote counters can count the number of people who voted and assign any tallies to any candidate they choose. Example 100 people show up to vote, the votes total 100, but 100 for who? Well if I want my candidate to win and you let me "count" the votes, I will report the figures as 73 for my guy and 27 for the opposition. So you see if I get to count the votes then I can make up any numbers I want to that still count my guy ahead. As Stalin said, it isn’t how many votes there are its who counts them......so the only way to stop this game is to refuse to play along.

  • I have been trying to reply to a message but for some reason it’s not posting but this is really in response to the accusations that I must be 5 years old and I should check my facts on Iraq and previous US involvement. If you had read what we were talking about you would have seen that we were talking about George W. Bush and he is NOT responsible for arming Saddam. I at no time denied that there have been US involvements with Iraq in the past. I was merely stating that the person before me should not judge Bush as not being a Christian because of his current involvement in the removal of Saddam from power in Iraq.