The Possible Impeachment of George W. Bush

THE POSSIBLE IMPEACHMENT OF GEORGE W. BUSH

by Mark Kato

Not a single day passes without some writer calling for the impeachment of George W. Bush. Although this writer heartily agrees with and endorses this sentiment, it is not likely to happen, at least not in the next fifteen months. Not until the mid-term elections of 2006 produce a Democratic majority in the House and a two-thirds Democratic majority in the Senate will there be the sine qua non for a successful impeachment and conviction of George W. Bush. In order for these majorities to obtain, the Democrats will have to gain another 16 seats in the House than they already have and 23 more seats in the Senate. Of the former, this means that the Democrats have to win 51% of all the House races, and of the latter, an almost impossible 70% of the 33 Senate seats that will be up for grabs. Unless the American electorate undergoes a dramatic sea change and votes overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates, George W. Bush will complete his second term.

Assuming that the almost impossible is still, nonetheless, possible, what would it take to cause the sea change that would compel the American electorate to vote in a Democratic House majority and a two-thirds Democratic majority in the Senate? Well, here is one scenario that is not without the realm of possibility. Let’s assume that Patrick Fitzgerald, the United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, who was appointed to investigate the Valerie Plame CIA leak matter, names George W. Bush as an unindicted co-conspirator. Although Bush would remain out of harm’s way, such a charge would taint his presidency. In the best of all possible worlds, some of this stench would attach itself to the Republican Party, producing the necessary sea change in the collective mind of the American electorate that will result in a Democratic takeover of Congress that could bring articles of impeachment against Bush and successfully convict him.

Some Plame Affair commentators have suggested that another option open to Fitzgerald is for him to actually indict the president as a co-conspirator. This is highly unlikely, however, since it would result in a constitutional crisis. Such a crisis would surely wind up in the Supreme Court for resolution, a situation that would probably prove favorable to Bush considering its current composition. With Chief Justice Roberts presiding, and in an anticipated 5 to 4 decision, the indictment would in all likelihood be judged “unconstitutional.” The cleansing effect such a decision would have on the Bush administration might be sufficient to deny the Democrats their needed victories in the mid-term elections.

The federal grand jury currently hearing evidence on the Plame Affair expires on October 28 of this year. Fitzgerald will then have to decide who he is going to indict and whether or not George W. Bush is included in the indictment. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that he names the president as an unindicted co-conspirator and gets convictions on the indicted co-conspirators. The future of the nation is hanging in the balance.