U.S. policy now aims to isolate Venezuela’s Chavez By Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times

U.S. policy now aims to isolate Venezuela’s Chavez

Sunday, March 12, 2006
By Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is stepping up efforts to counter the attempts of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to build a unified opposition to U.S. influence in a region that is drifting politically to the left.

U.S. diplomats have sought in recent years to mute their conflicts with Chavez, fearing that a war of words with the flamboyant populist could raise his stature at home and abroad. But in recent months, as Chavez has sharpened his attacks — and touched American nerves by increasing ties with Iran — American officials have become more outspoken about their intentions to isolate him.

Signaling the shift, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Congress last month that the United States is actively organizing other countries to carry out an "inoculation strategy" against what it sees as meddling by Chavez.

U.S. officials view Mr. Chavez’s use of his oil-generated wealth to help opposition groups in countries such as Nicaragua, Colombia and Peru as an attempt to destabilize regimes friendly to the United States.

"We are working with other countries to make certain that there is a united front against some of the things that Venezuela gets involved in," said Ms. Rice, who called Venezuela a "sidekick" of Iran.

Ms. Rice left yesterday on an eight-day trip to Latin America, Indonesia and Australia, including a stop in Chile for the inauguration of President-elect Michelle Bachelet. Ms. Rice said Thursday that she does not plan to see Mr. Chavez, who is expected to attend the inauguration Saturday.

As part of the new U.S. view of Venezuela, U.S. defense and intelligence officials have revised their assessment of the security threat Venezuela poses to the region. They say they believe Venezuela will have growing military and diplomatic relationships with North Korea and Iran, and point with concern to its arms buildup. Of equal concern is that country’s overhaul of its military doctrine, which now emphasizes "asymmetric warfare" — a strategy of sabotage and hit-and-run attacks against a greater military power, much like those used by Iraqi insurgents.

The administration’s revived interest in Latin America comes at a time when Congress has been pressing the Bush administration to define its strategy amid a growing number of clashes with the Chavez government.

Last month, the United States and Venezuela engaged in a diplomatic tit-for-tat reminiscent of the Cold War when they traded espionage accusations against each others’ diplomats, then expelled them. The two countries have clashed on airspace and landing rights for civilian and military aircraft, as the United States has sought to block Venezuela’s long-shot bid to become a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Venezuela has threatened to end the oil sales that provide the United States with about 12 percent of its imports, and begun rewriting its contracts with U.S. oil companies.

The tougher U.S. approach also reflects an American interest in trying to head off any further leftist inroads in upcoming elections in the region. Thirteen governments face re-election this year in Latin America, and Mr. Chavez has made known his support for opposition candidates in several of the countries, including Mexico, which elects its president in July.

"There is some concern that if the United States doesn’t play its cards right, there could be a major policy shift in the region that favors Venezuela’s interests over the United States," said Daniel P. Erikson, of the Inter-American dialogue, a research organization in Washington.

Since he took office 1999, Mr. Chavez has been trying to build a left-leaning alliance and has offered cut-rate oil and other inducements through a foreign aid program some believe to be worth billions of dollars per year. His stated aim is to push an alternative development model that eases the sting of globalism and favors the interests of the poor, who make up about 40 percent of the region’s population.

Venezuela’s U.S. Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez defended his country’s policies, saying they respond to failed economic models that have increased poverty and social exclusion. "Chavez and [Bolivian President] Evo Morales are not accidents of history," Mr. Alvarez said.

In a recent interview, Mr. Alvarez defended Venezuela’s relationship with Iran, saying the two nations had forged a strong relationship as co-founders of OPEC in 1960. He said his government’s repeated efforts to improve relations have been met with indifference.

"Any time we try to open a dialogue, there are people who act to sabotage it," Mr. Alvarez said.

Many observers are skeptical that Chavez has much appeal beyond Fidel Castro’s Cuba and impoverished Bolivia, but U.S. officials are concerned that his efforts could foment violence in unstable countries and weaken Latin American support for the American program of free-market economics and American-style governance.

Even as the administration has toughened its approach, there appear to be differing views within the U.S. government on how to deal with Venezuela.

Some State Department officials continue to emphasize that they do not want to be confrontational. Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon, the top U.S. diplomat for Latin America, has said he is not looking for a quarrel with Mr. Chavez.

"We don’t want to exaggerate his role or presence in the region," Mr. Shannon said in an interview. "We want to stay focused on a positive agenda for the region."

Military and intelligence figures have been more blunt.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld last month likened Mr. Chavez to Adolf Hitler, saying that both leaders were elected legally. At the same time, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, appearing before the Senate last week, said Mr. Chavez was spending "very extravagantly" to build alliances, and was seeking to strengthen ties with Iran, North Korea, and Cuba.

Whether the tough talk will resonate among Latin American audiences is uncertain. Thus far, only Mexico, not an immediate neighbor, has persisted in criticizing Chavez. Mexican President Vicente Fox, who is in the final nine months of his presidential term and hails from a conservative party strongly committed to free trade, exchanged angry words with Mr. Chavez late last year over Mexico’s U.S. ties.

In the widening spat, the Bush administration might be able to enlist to its side countries that are heavily dependent on the United States, or badly want the benefits of better ties with the north, one senior Latin American diplomat said.

But others, "even the ones who don’t like Chavez, don’t want to be out front," said the diplomat, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject. "They don’t want trouble."