2004/2006 Election Fraud

by TruthIsAll

Dec.12, 2000 is a day that will live in infamy. Bush needed the help of five right-wing Republicans on the Supreme Court to stop the recount in Florida and enable him to steal the election. There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the 2004 election. State and national pre-election and exit polls pointed to a Kerry victory.

Those who claim that Bush won fair and square are relentless in their attempts to thrash polling analyses which suggest that fraud occurred. Since the media will not release tell-tale precinct-level data, analysts must rely on publicly available polling data. And they have determined that the polls provide powerful statistical evidence of fraud. So-called ”voter fraud” has been shown to be non-existent. It’s a distraction from the evidence of massive “election fraud”. Voters don’t fix elections, politicians do. A few days after the 2004 election, naysayers were quick to dismiss statistical analyses of “spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers” as another left-wing “conspiracy theory”.

They continue to maintain that pre-election and exit polls which indicated a Kerry win were biased, but have not provided plausible statistical evidence to back up their claim. Instead, they have resorted to tortured explanations: Kerry voters were more likely to respond to exit pollsters; exit poll interviewers sought out Kerry voters; Gore 2000 voters must have lied or forgot when they told the exit pollsters that they voted for Bush 2000 ; exit polls are not true random samples; U.S. exit polls are not designed to detect fraud; preliminary exit poll data was inaccurate because women voted early and Republicans voted late; Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry; Bush was an incumbent war president; a powerful Republican GOTV campaign headed by Karl Rove mobilized millions of Christian fundamentalists for Bush, etc. All of these explanations are not supported by factual data and have been thoroughly debunked.

They cite a post-election retrospective NES 600-sample survey as evidence that 7% of former Gore voters lied or forgot they voted for him when they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. One explanation for this is the long-term Bush “bandwagon effect”: former Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner” of the prior election. But Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day and Gore won by 540,000 votes. Why would Gore voters lie or forget more than Bush voters? Why would they claim to have voted for Bush when they knew he stole the election? Why would they forgive Bush? Was it because of his job performance?

They note a built-in Democratic bias in the exit polls but dismiss the fact that in every election, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted and the majority are in heavily Democratic minority districts. Bush “won” Florida in 2000 by an “official” 537 votes, but there were 180,000 spoiled ballots (3% of the total) and thousands of other provisional and absentees which were never counted. Since more than 65% of the spoiled ballots were intended for Gore, he clearly won the state by at least 60,000 votes. Gore’s nationwide margin must have exceeded two million votes, much higher than the 540,000 recorded. In addition, an unknown number were switched to Bush. In 2004, over 90% of reported electronic vote switching incidents were from Kerry to Bush. And an exhaustive study indicated that 6.15% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush in Ohio’s Cuyahoga County.

They claim that the vaunted 2004 Republican GOTV campaign brought Bush millions of new Christian fundamentalist votes. But they fail to note that according to the National Exit Poll, since 1992 the Democrats have won first-time voters in every election by an average 14% margin. Ruy Teixeira wrote about it in The Emerging Democratic Majority.

They ignore the experience of world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris who claimed that late undecided voters broke 3-1 for Kerry. But this was not unexpected; historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for the challenger over 80% of the time, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48.5% 11-poll average approval rating on Election Day.

They dismiss Bush’s 48.5% rating as immaterial, yet every presidential incumbent (Ford, Carter, Bush I) with approval below 50% lost re-election. Every incumbent above 50% (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton) won. There was a near perfect 0.87 monthly correlation between Bush’s approval rating and his 18 pre-election national poll average. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%.

– http://www.geocities.com/electionmo...