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Trump repeal of the Affordable Care Act will kill 43,000 Americans over 8 years

by: Dr Gideon Polya
Saturday March 18, 2017 - 00:32

US President Donald Trump’s promised repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is estimated to kill 43,000 Americans over a 2-term Trump Presidency. This extra carnage of 43,000 American deaths due to an American-killing Trump is on top of a background level of about 45,000 American deaths per year due to lack of Health Cover (as estimated by researchers from Harvard Medical School before the limited ameliorative impact of ObamaCare). The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the ObamaCare-replacing, Trump Republican American Health Care Act would mean 14 million more uninsured Americans in 2018 and 24 million by 2026. Removal of millions of Americans from Health Cover will kill an estimated extra 16,000 Americans in a 1-term Trump presidency and kill an extra 43,000 Americans over 2 Trump terms. In stark contrast, an average of 3.8 American deaths in America from terrorism in the 14 year period after 9-11 predicts 30 such terrorism deaths in the period 2017-2024. This intentional mass murder of Americans by Zionist-subverted Trumpist Republican One Percenters is genocide as defined by the UN Genocide Convention and is in flagrant contravention of Trump’s rhetoric of “keeping America safe”. My estimations as a thanatologist (a scientist concerned with the causes of death) are presented below.

CNN has reported: “Twenty-four million more Americans would be uninsured by 2026 under the House Republican health care bill than under Obamacare, including 14 million by next year, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said Monday… In total, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured by 2026 under the GOP plan, compared to 28 million who would lack insurance under the current law. The Republican bill, titled the American Health Care Act, would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion over 10 years, the CBO said. The Trump administration immediately downplayed the report’s findings” [1].

Despite concerns expressed by Republican Senators (including intense concerns over their future re-election, one supposes), House Speaker Paul Ryan is adamant that the House plan will not be altered [2]. America has more Nobel Laureates (336 as of 2015) than any other country [3]. President Donald Trump is in a position to immediately access the very best intellectual, scholarly, economic, medical and scientific advice in the world (goodness knows, he needs to). As outlined below, President Donald Trump’s plan to knowingly, deliberately, and intentionally remove up to 24 million Americans from Health Cover will kill up to 7,400 Americans each year, will kill about 16,000 Americans in his first term, and will kill about 43,000 Americans over an 8-year 2-term presidency. Indeed it is extremely pertinent here to consider the UN Genocide Convention that defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group” [4].

In 2011 58% of 312 million Americans (i.e. 181 million Americans) had health cover i.e. 312 million - 181 million = 131 million didn’t have Health Cover [5]. A 2009 analysis from the Harvard Medical School estimated that 45,000 Americans die from lack of health insurance each year [6].

With this information we can roughly estimate that 131 million Americans without health insurance corresponds to 45,000 American deaths each year from this deficiency or 45,000/ 131 million = 343.5 American deaths annually for each 1 million Americans without health insurance. We can use this relationship to estimate the expected American deaths due to the Republican Trump Administration’s American Health Care Act and removal of millions of Americans from life-saving Health Cover.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that 24 million more Americans would be uninsured by 2026 under the House Republican American Health Care Act than under ObamaCare, including 14 million by 2018 [1].

Assuming that the American Health Care Act passes unamended, and that there is a subsequent linear increase in Americans removed from health cover from 14 million in 2018 to 24 million in 2026, we can graphically estimate the following cumulative numbers of Americans removed from health cover in the period 2018-2026: 14 million (2018), 15.2 million (2019), 16.5 million (2020), 17.8 million (2021), 19.0 million (2022), 20.2 million (2023), 21.5 million (2024), 21.8 million (2025), and 24.0 million (2026).

Assuming 343.5 American deaths annually for each 1 million Americans without health insurance, we can determine the following American deaths due to removal from Health Cover by the Republican Trump Administrations’ American Health Care Act : 14 million x 343.5 deaths/million = 4,809 (2018), 5,221 (2019), 5,668 (2020), 6,114 (2021), 6,527 (2022), 6,939 (2023), 7,385 (2024), 7,488 (2025), and 8,244 million (2026).

This data means that if Donald Trump has a single 4-year term (2017-2020), his American Health Care Act will kill 15,698 Americans, and if Trump has 2-terms (2017-2024) his health insurance policies will kill 42,663 Americans. Google the phrase “keep Americans safe” and you will get over 70,000 results that are dominated by the oft-repeated assertion of Trump that he will do just that, “Keep Americans safe” , and most specifically, from “terrorists” . However the qualitative “terror” of terror hysterical Americans aside, the quantitative reality is that about 60 Americans have been killed in America by terrorists since the US Government’s 9-11 false-flag atrocity [7, 8].

Including the Muslim-associated massacres such as the Fort Hood Massacre (13 killed, 2009), the Boston Marathon Massacre (4 killed, 2013), the Chattanooga Marines Massacre (4 killed, 2015) and the San Bernardino Massacre (14 killed, 2015) – but ignoring the daily but “non-political” massacres and other killings in streets, schools, other workplaces and homes totalling 15.5 years x 15,000 homicides per year = 232,500 homicides since 9-11 – about 53 American residents were killed in America by “terrorists” in the 14 years since 9/11. The average US population in this period was about 304 million (UN Population Division data). Accordingly, since 9-11 the average annual terrorism deaths in America has been 53/14 = 3.8 or about 4 per year [7, 8]. The “empirical annual probability of an American dying in the US from terrorism” is 53/(14 years x 304 million) = about 1 in 80.3 million per year [7].

As detailed below, an estimated total of about 1.67 million Americans die preventably each year out of a population of 319 million (2014). Accordingly, the “empirical annual probability of an American dying preventably in the US ” (P) is 1.67 million x 1,000/319 million = 5.2 in 1000 or 1 in 192 [7]. With respect to 1.67 million Americans who die preventably each year, the breakdown and annual P values ( “empirical annual probability of death”) are as follows (note gun, homicide and suicide deaths overlap):

1. 443,000 Americans die from smoking-related causes annually (P = 443,000 /319,000,000 = 1.39 in 1,000 = 1 in 719). 2. 440,000 Americans die from adverse events in hospitals each year (P = 1 in 725). 3. 300,000 Americans die from obesity-related causes annually (P = 1 in 1,063). 4. 200,000 Americans die annually from air pollution (e.g. from coal burning, vehicle exhaust, carbon burning in general) (P = 1 in 1,595). 5. 75,000 American alcohol-related deaths annually (P = 1 in 4,253) . 6. 45,000 US deaths annually from lack of medical insurance (P = 1 in 7,089). 7. 38,000 US drug-related deaths annually (P = 1 in 8,395), this including 21,000 US opiate drug-related deaths annually linked to US restoration and protection of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry (P = 1 in 15,190) . 8. 33,000 Americans killed by motor vehicles each year (P = 1 in 9,667). 9. 31,000 gun-related US deaths annually (P = 1 in 10,290). 10. 30,000 Americans suicide annually (P = 1 in 10,633) with 7,000 being US veterans (P = 1 in 45,571). 11. 21,000 avoidable under-5 year old US infant deaths annually (P = 1 in 15,190). 12. 15,000 Americans are violently murdered annually (P = 1 in 21,267) but, as this list shows, about 1.7 million Americans are passively murdered each year by One Percenter-subverted politician inaction and fiscal perversion (P = 1 in 192 ).

It is 80.3 million/ 7,089 = 11, 327 times more likely for an American to die from lack of Health Cover than to be killed by a terrorist; 80.3 million/1,595 = 50,344 times more likely for an American to die from air pollution than to be killed by a terrorist; 80.3 million/719 = 111,682 times more likely for an American to die from smoking than to be killed by a terrorist; and, overall, it is 80.3 million/192 = 418,229 million or about 420,000 times more likely for an American to die preventably (from smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of health cover, guns etc) than to die from a terrorist attack within the US [7].

In summary, 1.7 million Americans die preventably each year under successive One Percenter regimes, the breakdown being 443,000 (smoking), 300,000 (obesity), 75,000 (alcohol), 70,000 (air pollution), 45,000 (lack of health cover), 33,000 (motor vehicles), 31,000 (guns), 30,000 (suicides, 20% being US veterans), 21,000 (under-5 year old infants), 21,000 (opiates from US Alliance restoration of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry from 6% of world market share in 2001 to 90% today), and 15,000 (homicides). One should note that some of these categories overlap (guns, homicide and suicide) and some categories (e.g. deaths from smoking and obesity) won’t respond immediately to action taken now after decades of inaction [7].

Assuming the expert Medical School estimate from 134-Nobel-laureate Harvard University [9] of 45,000 Americans dying annually from lack of health insurance each year [6], 45,000 American deaths per year x 15.5 years = 697,500 or about 700,000 Americans have died from lack of health insurance since 9-11, as compared to about 60 American deaths in America at the hands of terrorists over the same period.

However, as estimated above, Donald Trump’s policy of abolishing ObamaCare and replacing it with the American Health Care Act will remove up to 24 million Americans from Health Cover by 2026 and kill an additional 43,000 Americans over a 2-term Trump presidency. If terrorists are ranked by the numbers of people they kill then Donald Trump is by far the worst terrorist threat facing Americans.

Of course, this is déjà vu. Thus according to a USA Today editorial in 2012 during the Democrat Barack Obama versus Republican Mitt Romney presidential race : “Of course, the court’s 5-4 decision doesn’t ensure that ObamaCare will survive. Republicans are even more determined now to kill it, and GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney quickly renewed his promise to undermine it on his first day in office. But the decision does guarantee that the law’s fate will be determined in the political arena, not the legal one… Republicans have some good ideas, such as limiting malpractice awards that cause doctors to over-test and over-treat. But they have yet to come up with a comprehensive plan that would extend coverage to anywhere close to the 30 million or more people who would gain coverage under ObamaCare. The only serious alternative Republicans offered during the health care debate fell pathetically short: The Congressional Budget Office found that it would cover only an additional 3 million people” [10].

It was similarly estimated back then that “nice” Republican Mitt Romney’s policy of removing 30 million Americans from ObamaCare would kill an estimated 45,000 x 30 million/131 million = 10,305 Americans each year or about 4 x 10,305 = 41,220 over one 4-year term and 8 x 10,305 = 82,440 over an 8-year, 2-term period. Cause and effect instructs that Americans voting for Mitt Romney would have been inescapably complicit in the killing of over 40,000 fellow Americans over 4 years or more than 80,000 fellow Americans over 8 years through imposed lack of Health Cover [11].

Passive mass murder of Americans by an American-killing Trump is not “keeping America safe”.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that replacing ObamaCare with the Trump Republican American Health Care Act would mean 14 million more uninsured Americans in 2018 and 24 million by 2026. According to the Harvard Medical School, lack of health insurance kills about 45,000 Americans each year, and one can readily estimate that Trump’s removal of up to about 20 million Americans from Health Cover will kill an extra 43,000 Americans over 2 Trump terms versus an expected 30 terrorism deaths based on average post-9-11 terrorism incidence in America. Mass murder of Americans by American-killing Trump is in stark contrast to Zionist Trump’s terror hysterical claims of “keeping America safe” from terrorism.

Donald Trump turns reality on its head with the horrendous, Hitlerian, Goebbelsian, and Orwellian Big Lie [12] that he will “keep America safe” from an expected 30 terrorism deaths in America over the next 8 years while being directly and intentionally responsible for 43,000 American deaths from lack of Health Cover over the same period in the name of fiscal restraint and reducing the federal deficit by $337 billion over 10 years. Under the Trump American Health Care Act an estimated 58,395 Americans will die from lack of Health Cover in the period 2017-2026 and thus Trump is placing a value on American lives of $337 thousand million/ 58,395 persons = $5.8 million per person, about two-thirds of recent estimates of the risk avoidance-based value of a statistical life (VOSL) of about $9 million per person for Americans [13, 14].

A genocidally anti-Arab anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, pro-Zionist and pro-Apartheid Israel Trump continues to fulminate against Muslims, discriminate against Muslims and follow his war criminal predecessor Barack Obama in prosecuting a genocidal US War on Muslims that has so far been associated with 32 million Muslim deaths from violence, 5 million, or imposed deprivation, 27 million, in 20 countries invaded by the US Alliance since the US Government’s 9-11 false flag atrocity [15, 16]. Indeed one notes that both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Al Gore dispute the “official lying Bush version” of 9-11 and hold the Bush Administration responsible for gross negligence in ignoring Code Red intelligence advice before 9-11 [16].

My estimates of huge avoidable deaths in 20 countries subject to the US War on Muslims are consonant with the recent desperate pleas of UN humanitarian chief Stephen O’Brien (United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator) who has warned of 20 million people facing famine in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen alone, telling the UN Security Council that "without collective and coordinated global efforts, people will simply starve to death… many more will suffer and die from disease" [17] . Presently 17 million people die from deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease on Spaceship Earth with a violent and racist Trump America in charge of the flight deck [18]. The killing continues in a swathe of impoverished Muslim countries, including countries facing mass starvation. One cannot be surprised that a Trump America having such brutal contempt for impoverished and starving millions would also have contempt for the 43,000 impoverished Americans it will sentence to death by repealing the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare).

As one who has been inspired by the wonderfully humane best of American scientists, scholars, poets, novelists, playwrights, philosophers, writers, sports heroes, musicians, entertainers and activists from Muhammad Ali to Howard Zinn, all I can do is to offer these appalling quantitative estimates of preventable American deaths under Trump in the hope that decent, humane Americans will inform everyone they can. Corporate Mainstream media lying [19-21] means that many of the 43,000 Americans set to die from lack of Health Cover under Trump will come from betrayed and impoverished families who misguidedly supported him.

Americans need to wise up, throw off the shackles of the endlessly lying Mainstream media and the Neocon American and Zionist Imperialist (NAZI)-perverted One Percenter Establishment, and demand action on an ongoing American Holocaust in which 1.7 million Americans die preventably every year due to the fiscal perversion of successive Zionist-subverted administrations committing trillions of dollars to war, backing genocidal Apartheid Israel, and killing millions of Muslims abroad rather than keeping millions of Americans alive at home [7, 22].


[1]. M.J. Lee and Tami Luhby, “CBO report: 24 million fewer insured by 2026 under GOP health care bill”, CNN, 14 March 2017: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/13/p... .

[2]. Tom LoBianco, “GOP senators see CBO report as call to change plan”, CNN, 13 March 2017: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/13/p... .

[3]. Ashley Kirk, “Nobel Prize winners: Which country has the most Nobel laureates?”, The Telegraph, 12 October 2015: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor... .

[4]. “United Nations Convention on the prevention and punishment of the crime of genocide”, 9 December 1948: http://www.edwebproject.org/sidesho... .

[5]. "Health Insurance", Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health... .

[6]. “New study finds 45,000 deaths annually linked to lack of health coverage”, Harvard Gazette: http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto... .

[7]. Gideon Polya, “West Ignores 11 Million Muslim War Deaths & 23 Million Preventable American Deaths Since US Government’s False-flag 9-11 Atrocity”, Countercurrents, 9 September, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/poly... .

[8]. Ronald Bailey, “How scared of terrorism should you be?”, Reason.com, 6 September 2011: http://reason.com/archives/2011/09/... .

[9]. “List of Nobel laureates by university affiliation”, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_... .

[10]. “Editorial: Supreme Court ObamaCare ruling benefits millions”, USA Today, 28 June 2012: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news... .

[11]. Gideon Polya, “Romney Abolition Of ObamaCare Would Kill 80,000 Americans Over 8 Years”, Countercurrents, 03 October, 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/poly... .

[12]. “Big lie”, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_lie .

[13]. “Value of life”, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value... .

[14]. Binyamin Appelbaum, “As U.S. Agencies put more value on a life, businesses fret””, New York Times, 16 February 2011: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/b... .

[15]. Gideon Polya,“Paris Atrocity Context: 27 Million Muslim Avoidable Deaths From Imposed Deprivation In 20 Countries Violated By US Alliance Since 9-11”, Countercurrents, 22 November, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/poly... .

[16]. “Experts: US did 9-11”: https://sites.google.com/site/exper... .

[17]. “Famine “largest humanitarian crisis in history of the UN. UN humanitarian chief says 20 million people in Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria face starvation and famine ””, Al Jazeera, 11 March 2017: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/... .

[18]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, that includes a succinct history of every country and is now available for free perusal on the web: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ .

[19]. “Mainstream media censorship”: https://sites.google.com/site/mains... .

[20]. “Mainstream media lying”: https://sites.google.com/site/mains... .

[21]. “Lying by omission”: https://sites.google.com/site/mains... .

[22]. Gideon Polya, “American Holocaust, Millions Of Untimely American Deaths And $40 Trillion Cost Of Israel To Americans”, Countercurrents, 27 August, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/poly... .

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