Home > Study predicts Arctic ice melt by 2100
Edito International Environment
by WWF
A new scientific study says the Arctic ice cover will disappear in summer by the end of this century unless carbon dioxide emissions are significantly reduced.
The study, to be released next week, says the Arctic ice melt will cause sea levels to rise and could lead to the extinction of some species such as polar bears.
"The melt has begun," said Jennifer Morgan, director of the Climate Change Campaign for the environmental organisation WWF, which published excerpts of the upcoming Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report.
Commissioned by the Arctic Council and compiled by more than 250 scientists, the report concludes that climate change is happening in the Arctic and that it will get worse unless emissions of carbon dioxide are cut.
Grim predictions
The report presents several potential scenarios which would occur if the Arctic ice were to disappear in summertime by the end of the 21st century.
It said sea levels could rise by one metre, noting that there are currently 17 million people living less than one metre above sea level in Bangladesh. It said places such as Florida and Louisiana in the United States and the Asian cities of Bangkok, Calcutta, Dhaka and Manila were also at risk.
However, on the positive side, rising sea levels could create a northern passage for shipping between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and would open up new areas for fishing, mining and oil and gas exploration.
The melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which is expected to take hundreds of years, could ultimately lead to a seven-metre rise in sea levels, the report said.
Threatened bears
"Polar bears could become extinct by the end of this century. They are unlikely to survive if there is an almost complete loss of summer sea ice cover," the WWF said.
Polar bears feed mainly on seals living under the ice, which the large mammals break to catch their prey.
The ACIA report is to be published in its entirety on 8 November.
The WWF welcomed the report, but stressed the hypocrisy of the eight members of the Arctic Council - the United States, Canada, Russia, Japan, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and Norway -which sponsored it, noting that they emit more than 30% of global carbon dioxide emissions.
Forum posts
5 November 2004, 00:42
When I stated that people thinking of emigrating from the US be certain where they are going is at least 400 feet above sea level, I’ve been asked to explain why 400 feet; here goes: Sea levels are predicted to rise 300+ feet over the next one hundred years due to global warming, primarily as a result of using coal and oil for power. Scientists are starting to say those estimates are too far out, the pace of warming is accelerating for several reasons, and levels may rise that far within fifty years. Considering the difference between Bush energy policy vs Kerry energy policy, it is likely to be sooner rather than later. Especially considering how many people in the Bush administration currently are directly tied to oil interests and somewhat to coal interests. Many island nations already are being forced to evacuate, and will disappear altogether. Florida will be gone. At least Jeb will lose his job - unless he is going to govern several thousand square miles of sea water. Memphis will be flooded, over 100 miles out into the ocean. (Being an Elvis fan, I greatly resent that.) The Gulf of Mexico will expand nearly to the Southern tip of Illinois. So if you plan to move, go where it’s at least 400 feet above the ocean. The good news is that most of the states that will be flooded voted Republican...such as it is. 888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888
8 November 2004, 17:04
Check the red states again. That would be almost the entire US except for East & West coast and we all know that they will go first reguardless of the occasion. I guess the Republicans are also to blame for the extinction of the dinosaur. Thank you for the wise information, I never knew that for 5 to 6 thousand years the earth never had polar caps melt or freeze, it never had floods, tornadoes, hurricanes or any other natural disasters until the Republican party came to be known. Once again, Thank you!
8 November 2004, 22:41
Frankly, this is just one study and there haven’t been many and I wonder about some of the assumptions these scientists have taken when conducting this study. Also if it were true, it is a disaster for the democrats. It will wipe out most of those areas that are slated blue leaving most of the red states which are more inland, more or less intact.