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A U.S. sponsored poll shows Iraqis have lost confidence in the occupying authorities...
by Open-Publishing - Thursday 17 June 2004Newsweek
A U.S.-sponsored poll shows Iraqis have lost confidence in the occupying
authorities—and that the vast majority of Iraqis want Coalition troops
out of the country ‘immediately’
By Michael Hirsh
The first survey of Iraqis sponsored by the U.S. Coalition
Provisional Authority after the Abu Ghraib prison scandal shows that
most say they would feel safer if Coalition forces left immediately,
without even waiting for elections scheduled for next year. An
overwhelming majority, about 80 percent, also say they have “no
confidence” in either the U.S. civilian authorities or coalition forces.
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Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed also said they believed violent
attacks have increased around the country because “people have lost
faith in the coalition forces.”
The poll numbers were reflected in the anger seen in the streets of
Baghdad after a series of car bombings on Monday. While U.S forces and
Iraqi police hung back, crowds set some of the vehicles on fire, threw
bricks and shouted insults at U.S. soldiers. According to the poll, a
mere one percent of Iraqis now feel that the coalition forces contribute
most to their sense of security; only 18 percent described Iraqi police
the same way. By contrast, a total of 71 percent said they depended
mostly on their family and friends and neighbors for security.
INTERACTIVE
Read the full results of the U.S.-sponsored poll
The poll results which have not been released publicly but were obtained
by NEWSWEEK, indicate that the April publication of photos depicting the
abuse of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison accelerated a long-term
decline in support for the U.S. occupation. Of the Iraqis surveyed, 71
percent said they had been surprised by the Abu Ghraib revelations.
Most, however, said they now believe the abuses were widespread.
Fifty-four percent agreed with the statement that “all Americans behave
this way,” and 61 percent said they believed no one would be punished
for the abuses. A CPA spokesman said Tuesday that he had not yet
examined the numbers.
Taken from May 14 to May 23, the survey also shows a sharp rise in the
popularity of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, with 81 percent
saying they had either a better or much better or better opinion of him
than they did three months earlier. Sadr’s Al Mahdi Army has been
engaged in a bloody standoff with U.S. forces in the cities of Kufa and
Najaf for more than two months. His popularity among leading Iraqi
public figures is exceeded only by that of another Shiite cleric,
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who was “strongly supported” by 51 percent of
Iraqis and “somewhat supported” by another 19 percent.
The news for the newly designated Iraqi prime minister, Iyad Allawi, was
not as good. While the poll was taken just before he was named to head
the new interim government, 61 percent said they either strongly oppose
or somewhat oppose Allawi, a former exile once backed by the CIA. Only
23 percent said they somewhat support or strongly support him.
On the positive side, the poll showed that 63 percent of Iraqis believe
that installing the interim Iraqi government will make things “better”
for Iraq, with only 15 percent saying thing will be worse. The survey
also indicated that most Iraqis display continuing confidence in the new
Iraqi police and army.
The poll reflects an inexorable decline in support for the U.S.
occupation since the fall of Baghdad over a year ago. In November of
2003, 47 percent of those surveyed still expressed confidence in the
CPA; those figures plummeted to 9 percent in April and 11 percent in
May. In the latest survey, 81 percent of Iraqis also expressed “no
confidence” in Coalition forces. Seventy-eight percent expressed the
same grim opinion of the outgoing CPA, which is slated to dissolve when
sovereignty is handed over to the interim government on June 30. The
survey does show a marginal uptick in support for the CPA and coalition
forces since April, but that small increase falls within the poll’s
margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. Fifty-seven percent of
those surveyed also expressed no confidence in the United Nations.
The survey also shows that coalition forces, which have struggled
unsuccessfully to crush an insurgency that has targeted increasing
numbers of Iraqis, as well as power lines and other facilities, seem to
have lost the faith of most Iraqis. In November of 2003, just 11 percent
of Iraqis said they would feel “more safe” if coalition forces left
immediately; that number rose to 28 percent in January. Today 55 percent
of Iraqis say they would feel safer if coalition forces departed right
away, even though the Bush administration has indicated they would stay
on at least until the Iraqi elections in 2005. A whopping 69 percent
also want the CPA to play no role at all in the selection of an
independent election commission.
The poll consisted of face-to-face interviews with 1,093 people selected
randomly in six Iraqi cities and towns: Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Hillah,
Diwaniyah and Baquba. It was conducted by the Independent Institute for
Administration and Civil Society Studies, a CPA- sponsored Iraqi survey
group.