ANC scores decisive victory in South Africa voting

Mbeki’s ANC heads for crushing victory despite
growing discontent over poverty

By Declan Walsh in Johannesburg

The Independent (UK)

The African National Congress was heading for a
crushing victory last night in South Africa’s third
election since the end of apartheid 10 years ago. With
62 per cent of polling stations declared, President
Thabo Mbeki’s party had 70 per cent support, seven
points more than the liberation hero Nelson Mandela
scored in the 1994 election.

Tony Leon’s white-led Democratic Alliance (DA) was a
distant second with 14 per cent of votes, although the
provisional tally suggested a leap in support since the
1999 election.

The widely predicted landslide confirmed the ANC’s
towering popularity despite swelling discontent over
deepening poverty, violent crime and the HIV/Aids
pandemic. The former apartheid rulers in the New
National Party saw their vote plummet from 7 per cent
to less than 2 two per cent.

Smuts Ngonyama, an ANC spokesman, said: "The hurricane
is beginning to blow. It’s blowing in our favour."
Black voters remain grateful to the party for
delivering the country from racist white rule, and
since 1994 the government has provided millions with
water, housing and electricity.

With most outstanding results due from rural areas, the
party’s final tally could rise further. "You can’t
argue with the clarity of their mandate," said Richard
Calland, an analyst with the Institute for Democracy, a
local think-tank.

Mr Leon’s DA party said the ANC’s unchallenged
dominance could be leading South Africa towards a de
facto one-party state. A two-thirds majority allows the
ANC to alter the constitution at will. Mr Mbeki derides
the threat as fictional, pointing to safeguards in the
strong judiciary and vigorous press.

Voter turnout slipped from 89 per cent in 1999 to about
76 per cent, reflecting disenchantment among poor
blacks and coloureds who have yet to benefit from
liberation. Despite steady economic growth since 1994,
unemployment remains stubbornly high at 42 per cent.

The turnout still, however, confirmed South Africa’s
place among the world’s strongest democracies, shaming
most western countries. Just 51 per cent of voters
participated in the most recent US presidential
election; turnout at European elections is often barely
higher.

None of the 21 opposition parties managed to seriously
chip the ANC’s countrywide support base. Contenders
ranged from the right-wing white Afrikaner Freedom
Front Plus to radical black socialist parties. The
smallest party, Kiss (Keep It Straight and Simple),
attracted 3,500 votes.

Feared upheaval in KwaZulu-Natal province, the ANC’s
main electoral challenge, largely failed to
materialise. An estimated 20,000 people died in the
province in 1994 during clashes between ANC supporters
and rivals from the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

Tensions remain high. Yesterday 240 soldiers were sent
to Nongoma and Ulundi to rescue 30 ANC polling agents
who said their lives were threatened by IFP gangs. A DA
politician was shot in the leg in Durban on Tuesday in
what the party termed an "assassination attempt".

With results suggesting the IFP vote had halved to 5
per cent, party officials claimed ANC-biased officials
had rigged the vote. "It may well be that we would not
accept the election results if we believe electoral
fraud and cheating have [undermined] the process," its
spokesman, Musa Zondi, said.

But many votes from the province, South Africa’s most
populous, have yet to be tallied. Although a distant
second, the DA increased its vote by 50 per cent over
1999, suggesting it has succeeded in attracting some
disgruntled blacks, something analysts say is crucial
to building a proper opposition.

Analysts said, however, that the DA would have to re-
examine its image, particularly the abrasive style of
Mr Leon, which grates with many blacks, who have bitter
memories of white rule. Protas Madlala, an independent
analyst, said: "They can be too aggressive and some
people react very emotionally to Leon. They say: ’Who
is this white man who is speaking so badly about our
President?’"

The virtual collapse of the New National Party, led by
Marthinus van Schalkwyk, sneeringly referred to as
"short pants", exceeded the worst predictions. Its
slender support may, however, be enough to assure it a
place in an ANC-led coalition government in its Western
Cape heartland.

Patricia de Lille, the firebrand leader of the
Independent Democrats, touted as a growing opposition
force, garnered 2 per cent of the vote. Ms de Lille
regularly targets government policies with coruscating
comments and publicity stunts that have embarrassed Mr
Mbeki.

Analysts say she must now translate soundbites into
action. "She has done extremely well for such a young
party," Mr Calland said. "But now she must show she can
deliver."

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/africa/story.jsp?story=511872