Bush insists Iraq Election will bring peace

... the elections could deepen the conflict by leading to greater alienation of the Sunni minority from the Shia and Kurds.

Reiterating what he has referred to before as his “revolutionary” foreign policy, Mr Bush said the “job” of the US and those who wanted peace was to “be aggressive in the spread of freedom”.

President George W. Bush on Friday rejected warnings from a prominent adviser that elections in Iraq this month could precipitate a slide into civil war, insisting that the polls would lead to peace even if there were a low turnout among the minority Sunnis.

Mr Bush told reporters in the White House that it was not “constructive” to worry about the size of the turnout on January 30. He said 14 of Iraq’s 18 provinces appeared “relatively calm”, an acknowledgment that Baghdad had joined three of the main Sunni provinces in lacking security because of the insurgency.

Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser to the president’s father, warned at a foreign policy forum in Washington on Thursday that Iraq was going through “an incipient civil war”, and that the elections could deepen the conflict by leading to greater alienation of the Sunni minority from the Shia and Kurds.

Asked if he shared that view, Mr Bush replied: “Quite the opposite. I think elections will be such an incredibly hopeful experience for the Iraqi people.”

Mr Bush recently accepted the resignation of Mr Scowcroft, an increasingly outspoken critic of administration policies, as head of his foreign intelligence advisory board. It is not clear whether the president removed him or the former general decided to go.

It was confirmed earlier that Condoleezza Rice, nominated as the next secretary of state, had chosen Robert Zoellick, the US chief trade representative, as her deputy.

Officials also said that John Bolton, the department’s senior arms control official, had decided to leave. Mr Bolton was the most visible “hawk” in the State Department, who had the ability to infuriate his European allies and was once denounced by North Korea as “human scum”. But he was not a neo-conservative who measured progress in changing political systems.

The president’s acceptance of the possibility of a low turnout among Sunni voters in Iraq reflects the administration’s determination to press ahead with the polls. Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, has also expressed the view that the results would be seen as legitimate if Iraqis could vote in a majority of provinces.

In private, US officials say a 30 per cent turnout among Sunnis, who make up about 20 per cent of the population but dominated the regime of Saddam Hussein, would be acceptable.

Mr Bush said he looked forward to working with the newly elected government “to help train Iraqis as fast as possible so they can defend themselves”.

“I think we’re making great progress,” Mr Bush said, making no reference to the rapidly mounting death toll among US troops and Iraqi security forces.

Reiterating what he has referred to before as his “revolutionary” foreign policy, Mr Bush said the “job” of the US and those who wanted peace was to “be aggressive in the spread of freedom”.

Danielle Pletka, foreign policy specialist with the neo-conservative American Enterprise Institute, said that despite the switches in personnel in the second Bush administration, it should not be forgotten that the president set policy.

While there might be a shift in “atmospherics” towards Europe, she saw no evidence of a change in substance regarding Europe, the Iraq crisis or non-proliferation. “Elections will happen in Iraq,” she said. “They are in this for the long haul. They have said this for a long time. They still believe it is the right thing to do.”

Mr Bolton is expected to be replaced by Robert Joseph from the National Security Council.

A source close to the administration said Mr Joseph was an enthusiastic supporter of developing new nuclear weapons, such as bunker-busters.

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