Degrees of Separation, the Numbers Game, and How to Bring Peace to the World

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Degrees of Separation, the Numbers Game, and How to Bring Peace to the World

To bring peace to the world we must first understand the consequences of war, specifically how many people it affects. The calculations required to truly understand the number of people that are directly affected by war are quite simple. To get a ballpark estimate, all we have to do is look at the number of contacts we have in our cell phone. If we got hurt then the odds are that most of our contacts would hear about it. If we also take into consideration that they have families and friends, then the number of people that would know about our demise could be very substantial. What we will do in this article is come up with the lowest estimate of the number of people that would be directly affected per casualty, then extrapolate that number to get a better understanding of what the numbers in war imply. Once we fully understand the magnitude of the consequences of war, then it should be relatively easy to implement the changes required, on a personal level, to help stop the proliferation of war.

Two Degrees of Separation:

The average family size in the United States of America and Canada is slightly over three. If we include 2 grandparents per family, then the average immediate family size would increase to 5 (a father, a mother and a child, plus 2 grandparents). To give you a perspective of how low this number is, the average family size in Iraq is 6, not including the grandparents.

The definition for an extended family is " a group of relatives, such as those of three generations, who live in close geographic proximity rather than under the same roof." If we assign 4 extended family members per individual in a family, excluding the centralized person, then the average extended family size would be 16. For each extended family member we will assign 10 people, representing their family and friends. This is absolutely the lowest estimate for an individual. Most people have substantially more then 10 friends and family. We will also assign 4 additional family members for each friend of the extended family. Figure 1 represents this distribution, showing the minimum number of people who would be directly affected for each person killed or wounded in war. This number totals 821.

FIGURE 1

A Numbers Game:

Afghanistan and Iraq

Now that we have established the minimum number of people affected per casualty, we can estimate the number of people that have been directly affected by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Table 1 lists the number of casualties and the total number of people affected for Canada, The United States, Coalition Countries, Afghanistan and Iraq.

The numbers that require special consideration from this table are the total number of people affected in Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan has a total population of approximately 31 million while Iraq has a population of approximately 27 million. The total number of people affected in these countries is more then the total population of the country. This implies that the average Afghani citizen knows or has heard of more than 1 person that has been killed or seriously injured as a direct result of the war. In Iraq, the average person knows or has heard of, on a first hand bases, of approximately 13 people who have been killed or seriously wounded. To truly put this number into perspective we should ask ourselves, how many people do we know that have been killed or wounded by the war so far?

TABLE 1

Vietnam

There has been a tremendous amount of discussion comparing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to that of Vietnam. Table 2 lists the number of people affected by the Vietnam War for the United States, and South and North Vietnam.

The total number of people affected in the United States at the end of the Vietnam War was approximately 170 million, representing over 80% of the population in 1975. This implies that the majority of Americans were directly affected by the war in Vietnam, which is most likely the reason why the war came to an end for the United States at that time. For the Vietnamese, the average citizen knew or had heard of at least 46 people who had been killed or wounded by the war, which would explain why the United States lost the war in Vietnam (an estimate of 50 million for the population of Vietnam for 1975 was used for this calculation).

TABLE 2

World War II & III

The numbers above should indicate the direction that we are headed in the wars of Afghanistan and Iraq. In Iraq we are getting close to affecting people on the same level as Vietnam once the number of people affected by Depleted Uranium and the 12-year sanctions are taken into account. Unfortunately this disaster does not seem to be the end of the road for the American mission. In early May of this year, 2006, the president of the United States acknowledged that 2001 was the beginning of World War III. His remarks were confirmed by Israel’s UN Ambassador Dan Gillerman, when he also acknowledged that World War III had already begun during a routine UN Security Council meeting on May 30, 2006. These two statements from two of the main nuclear powers in the world should be considered frightening since each, individually, is capable of starting World War III.

An analysis of the total number of dead at the end of World War II is shown in Table 3. The total number of wounded is unknown, and considering the magnitude of a World War, the number of killed is sufficient for our analysis. The total number of dead during World War II was estimated to be 62.5 million. The total population of the world during that period was approximately 2 billion, which means that on average each person would have known or heard of 26 people that had been killed in the war.

TABLE 3

An estimate of the number of dead and wounded that can be expected for World War III is shown in Table 4. This table was obtained using reverse extrapolation. The population of the world is estimated to be seven billion by 2012. Using the starting number of 26, obtained from the World War II calculation above, it is expected that by 2012 approximately 221 million people will be dead. If the ratio of the dead vs. wounded is taken into account to be the same as the average numbers obtained from the Iraq war then we can assume that approximately 4.3 people will be wounded for every person killed (This number is obtained from the average kill to wounded ratio for the United States and the Medium Iraq casualty estimates). This calculation implies that the total number of wounded in World War III will be approximately 1 billion. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account the number of people who will be affected by Depleted Uranium and the environmental catastrophes that will follow as a direct result of the war.

TABLE 4

These numbers, 221 million dead and approximately 1 billion wounded, are what the United States and the Israeli ambassador have just stated to be the price which the world will pay for the advancement of an agenda that is still not very clear. If the purpose of this so-called "War on Terror" is to protect human life and reduce suffering, then it is beyond my understanding how this task will be accomplished by killing 221 million people and seriously injuring 1 billion. But then again I am just an analyst and do not pretend to know of a higher purpose beyond saving the life of 1 out of every 7 people that will either be dead or seriously wounded in the next 6 years.

How to Bring Peace to the World:

The most important thing that we can do on an individual basis beyond knowing what we are meant to consumer, whom we are meant to support and what we are meant to know, is attending Peace Rallies. If we apply the basic premise discussed above under "Two degrees of Separation", then for each person attending a peace rally, many people could be affected. Unfortunately attending a peace rally does not usually have the same affect, on a personal level, as compared to attending a funeral or visiting a friend in the hospital. Therefore, it would be rather optimistic to assume that by attending a peace rally we would directly affect 821 people. However it is reasonable to assume that if we are vocal enough, we may have a partial influence to "One Degree of Separation" of our family. This would mean that for every person that attends a peace rally approximately 181 people could be affected. If we assume that peace can be accomplished through a majority, then if half the world’s population is affected through activism, it should be possible to stop World War III. Table 5 lists the minimum number of people that are required to attend the coming peace rallies to influence half the world. This number is 18 million.

TABLE 5

In 2003, leading up to the invasion of Iraq, it was estimated that between 6 to 10 million people attended peace rallies in approximately 800 cities around the world. These numbers fell short of what was required to stop the invasion of Iraq, however they were sufficient to influence the leaders of certain countries, such as Canada, to refrain from joining the war. If as a world community we hope to save ourselves from the pain and anguish proposed by certain people, then we require at least 18 million people to join in a common cause. To bring peace to the world and save the lives of hundreds of millions of people it is required that a mere 18 million of us, representing 0.28% of the world’s populace, to rise up and demand peace with one voice.

I hope we can do it.