Home > Global Poll Finds Pessimism, Linked to US Power
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - With the notable exceptions of China and India,
a majority of people in 19 key countries are pessimistic
about the world’s current direction, says a just-released
survey, which found a high correlation between that feeling
and the belief that U.S. influence is increasingly negative,
particularly as compared to Europe.
The survey, conducted by the international polling firm
Globescan (formerly Environics International), also found
stronger support for economic globalization in developing
countries than in industrialized nations, particularly in
Europe, which also emerged as the world’s most pessimistic
region.
And it found that a clear majority of world opinion (56
percent) does not think rich countries are playing fair in
trade negotiations with poor ones, although that perception
is significantly more widespread in the rich nations
themselves than in developing nations.
The Global Issues Monitor Survey, the latest in a series that
began in 2000, was carried out between November 2003 and
February 2004 in 19 countries, almost all of which overlap
with the membership of the so-called Group of 20.
In North America, they included the United States and Canada;
in Europe — Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Spain
and Turkey; in Latin America — Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Mexico and Uruguay; in Asia — China, India and Indonesia;
and in Africa — Nigeria and South Africa.
Virtually all of the respondents from developing nations were
urban-dwellers. Nearly 19,000 people were surveyed.
The U.S. poll was carried out in mid-December, just after the
capture of former Iraq President Saddam Hussein, which gave
President George W Bush a substantial boost in public
opinion, which has since shown a sharp decline in his
standing and in general confidence about where the country is
going.
The results released Friday by Globescan and an analysis
carried out by the University of Maryland’s Program on
International Attitudes (PIPA) dealt with people’s
confidence, perceptions of the United States and Europe,
globalization and trade and trust in international
institutions. They were part of a much more comprehensive
survey that is made available only to Globescan’s paid
clients, mainly large multinational corporations.
The survey found that only one-third of respondents either
’’strongly’’ or ’’somewhat’’ agreed with the statement that
’’the world is going in the right direction’’.
As a region, Europe was the most pessimistic, with only 14
percent of Italian and 15 percent of French respondents
saying the global trajectory was positive. Only 19 percent of
Turks and 20 percent of Germans agreed, as did 20 percent of
Argentines and Uruguayans who, along with the Turks, were
consistently the most negative about a range of global
issues.
By contrast, 77 percent of Chinese respondents and 51 percent
of Indians questioned said they believed the world was
improving, while, in general, respondents living in lower-
income countries (45 percent) tended to be more positive than
their high-income counterparts (28 percent).
On perceptions of the United States, only 37 percent said it
was having a positive influence in the world, while 55
percent disagreed. Twelve of the 19 countries had
predominantly negative views of U.S. influence, most notably
Germany (82 percent), France (74), Argentina and Russia (72)
and Turkey (69).
In only four countries were positive views of the U.S.
expressed: India (69 percent), Nigeria (56), Brazil (52) and
South Africa (51). Two-thirds of U.S. respondents also
expressed positive feelings, while in the 19 countries
overall, those with the most education tended to be more
negative than those with less.
Moreover, views of the United States were found to be the
most powerful predictor of how respondents felt about the
world’s direction, according to PIPA Director Stephen Kull.
Among those who think Washington is having a negative
influence, 70 percent say the world is going in the wrong
direction, while those who think it has a positive influence
were evenly divided between optimism and pessimism.
In a potentially worrisome sign for both U.S. corporations
and foreign policy, Europe is now seen somewhat more
favorably worldwide than the United States, the survey found.
A plurality of just under one-half of all respondents,
including U.S. participants, agreed with the assertion that
Europe’s influence was positive, versus 40 percent who
disagreed.
Positive feelings about Europe were lowest in Turkey (26
percent) and Uruguay (34) and highest in France (62), India
(61), and Canada (60). Aside from the United States itself,
respondents in only two countries — India and Nigeria —
rated the United States higher than Europe. The gaps in favor
of Europe were particularly wide — 15 percentage points or
more — in Italy, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Argentina
and Russia, where respondents opted for Europe by a 44-15
percent margin.
On confidence in institutions, non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) rated highest overall, with nearly two-thirds of
respondents saying they had ’’a lot’’ or ’’some’’ trust in
NGOs. The United Nations was next with 59 percent, followed
by national governments (53 percent), large domestic
companies (52), press (50), trade unions (48), and global
corporations (42).
Those percentages represented something of a rebound for both
the United Nations and executives of global companies,
compared to August 2002 when confidence in the world body
stood at just over 40 percent and executives of global
companies at less than 30 percent.
Confidence in the United Nations rose particularly sharply in
Spain, India and Russia, although it fell marginally in
Germany, the United States, and Italy.
Positive views were strongest in Mexico (88 percent), Spain
(78), and Canada (77), while 64 percent of U.S. respondents
said they had ’’a lot’’ or ’’some’’ trust in the world body.
Turkey and Argentina were the only countries where majorities
expressed negative views, although in both cases those
majorities were reduced from two years ago.
On economic and globalization issues, respondents in
developed countries, particularly in Europe, tended to be
more critical of the ways the global economic system was
working in regards to poor countries than respondents from
poor countries themselves.
Overall, 55 percent of respondents said economic
globalization was positive for them and their families, while
only 25 percent said it was negative. But, the fact that 20
percent said they were undecided and that only 12 percent
felt ’’very positively’’ about globalization showed a
’’softness’’ in support, according to Chris Coulter, a
Globescan analyst.
In 14 of 19 countries, majorities expressed positive views,
with India (73 percent) the most positive, followed by Brazil
(72), South Africa (71), and Nigeria (70). Respondents in
Russia, Turkey, Uruguay and Argentina were divided on the
question, while only France produced a negative plurality (45
percent).
The younger, the more educated and the higher income earned
by the respondent, the more positive attitude she or he had
toward globalization, according to the survey.
Large majorities, ranging from 62 percent (United States) to
77 percent (Italy), of higher-income countries, including
Russia, disagreed with the notion that rich countries play
fair in trade negotiations with poor countries, while, with
the exception of Brazil, Uruguay and South Africa,
respondents in poor countries were either split on the
question or pluralities agreed.
Majorities in three developing countries — Mexico (61
percent), Indonesia (59) and India (55) also agreed with the
statement.
With the exception of Germany, large pluralities or
majorities in high-income and Latin American countries and
Turkey also either ’’strongly’’ or ’’somewhat’’ disagreed
with the statement that poor countries benefit as much as
rich countries from free trade and globalization, while
respondents were more split on the question in Russia,
Nigeria, China, India and Indonesia.
June 5, 2004, Inter Press Service