NOT WHILE I’M PRESIDENT!

Even though we have George Bush’s pledge that, "We’re not going to have a draft, period," the draft-age men of his home state, Texas, are apparently not so confident that he’ll keep his word if the statistics compiled by the Selective Service System (SSS) are to be believed. Since 1999, the SSS has been issuing a state-by-state report card on selective service registration compliance that shows the Lone Star state’s compliance has been consistently below the national average.

In 1999, when the national average was 83%, Texans scored only 77%. In the four succeeding years, Texas improved on its compliance, but still fell short of the national average. In 2000, it scored 79% compared to an 87% national average. In 2001, it showed no improvement, holding steady at 79%, while the national average fell sllightly to 86%. In 2002, it rose to 82% as compared to the national average of 89%. And, in 2003, the last year that numbers are available, 87% of eligible Texans complied, while the national average rose to 90%.

Superficially, one would expect red-state Texas to be in the forefront of compliance with respect to SSS registration. But, as the numbers show, that turns out not to be the case. One wonders why Texans have performed so relatively poorly with respect to SSS registration. Could it be an indication of their basic distrust of their former governor? Or, is this under performance the result of other factors?

Whatever the reason is for their reluctance to register with the SSS, it is in stark contrast to the relatively high numbers of men and women from Texas who are now serving in the all-volunteer military. According to the U.S. census for 2003, 107,000 Texans were members of the armed forces, third behind California with 149,000 and Virginia with 131,000. Moreover, according to the Department of Defense, as of January 29, 2005, almost ten percent of the total U.S. casualties, killed and wounded in Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom, were Texans.

Given the relatively high rate of military volunteerism on the part of Texans, it is difficult to explain why, over the past five years, the state’s draft-age males have consistently scored lower than the national average with respect to SSS registration compliance. No matter what the reason is - perhaps it is just a statistical fluke that will eventually correct itself - the low scores that the SSS have recorded for Texas registration compliance would, nonetheless, prove embarrassing for George W. Bush should the draft be reinstated in the near future.

In any event, the long border that Texas shares with Mexico may prove to be an irresistible lure to many young non-compliant Texans when the draft is reactivated. Then, the Border Patrol will probably change its mission to stopping Americans from leaving the country rather than its current one of keeping undocumented aliens from entering it.