Now the Pentagon Tells Bush: Climate Change Will Destroy Us

Secret Report Warns of Rioting and Nuclear War; Threat
to the World is Greater than Terrorism

By Mark Townsend and Paul Harris

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4864237-102275,00.html

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a
global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars
and natural disasters..

A secret report, suppressed by US defense chiefs and
obtained by The Observer, warns that major European
cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is
plunged into a ’Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear
conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting
will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could
bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries
develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling
food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global
stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the
few experts privy to its contents.

’Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of
life,’ concludes the Pentagon analysis. ’Once again,
warfare would define human life.’

The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush
administration, which has repeatedly denied that
climate change even exists. Experts said that they will
also make unsettling reading for a President who has
insisted national defense is a priority.

The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon
defense adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held
considerable sway on US military thinking over the past
three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent
review aimed at transforming the American military
under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Climate change ’should be elevated beyond a scientific
debate to a US national security concern’, say the
authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head
of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug
Randall of the California-based Global Business
Network.

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is
’plausible and would challenge United States national
security in ways that should be considered
immediately’, they conclude. As early as next year
widespread flooding by a rise in sea levels will create
major upheaval for millions.

Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire
from a large body of respected scientists who claimed
that it cherry- picked science to suit its policy
agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like.
Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower at the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that
suppression of the report for four months was a further
example of the White House trying to bury the threat of
climate change.

Senior climatologists, however, believe that their
verdicts could prove the catalyst in forcing Bush to
accept climate change as a real and happening
phenomenon. They also hope it will convince the United
States to sign up to global treaties to reduce the rate
of climatic change.

A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the
White House to voice their fears over global warming,
part of an intensifying drive to get the US to treat
the issue seriously. Sources have told The Observer
that American officials appeared extremely sensitive
about the issue when faced with complaints that
America’s public stance appeared increasingly out of
touch.

One even alleged that the White House had written to
complain about some of the comments attributed to
Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair’s chief scientific
adviser, after he branded the President’s position on
the issue as indefensible.

Among those scientists present at the White House talks
were Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief
environmental adviser to the German government and head
of the UK’s leading group of climate scientists at the
Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research. He said
that the Pentagon’s internal fears should prove the
’tipping point’ in persuading Bush to accept climatic
change.

Sir John Houghton, former chief executive of the
Meteorological Office - and the first senior figure to
liken the threat of climate change to that of terrorism
– said: ’If the Pentagon is sending out that sort of
message, then this is an important document indeed.’

Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and
former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, added that the Pentagon’s dire warnings could
no longer be ignored.

’Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It’s going be hard to
blow off this sort of document. Its hugely
embarrassing. After all, Bush’s single highest priority
is national defense The Pentagon is no wacko, liberal
group, generally speaking it is conservative. If
climate change is a threat to national security and the
economy, then he has to act. There are two groups the
Bush Administration tend to listen to, the oil lobby
and the Pentagon,’ added Watson.

’You’ve got a President who says global warming is a
hoax, and across the Potomac river you’ve got a
Pentagon preparing for climate wars. It’s pretty scary
when Bush starts to ignore his own government on this
issue,’ said Rob Gueterbock of Greenpeace.

Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet
is carrying a higher population than it can sustain. By
2020 ’catastrophic’ shortages of water and energy
supply will become increasingly harder to overcome,
plunging the planet into war. They warn that 8,200
years ago climatic conditions brought widespread crop
failure, famine, disease and mass migration of
populations that could soon be repeated.

Randall told The Observer that the potential
ramifications of rapid climate change would create
global chaos. ’This is depressing stuff,’ he said. ’It
is a national security threat that is unique because
there is no enemy to point your guns at and we have no
control over the threat.’

Randall added that it was already possibly too late to
prevent a disaster happening. ’We don’t know exactly
where we are in the process. It could start tomorrow
and we would not know for another five years,’ he said.

’The consequences for some nations of the climate
change are unbelievable. It seems obvious that cutting
the use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.’

So dramatic are the report’s scenarios, Watson said,
that they may prove vital in the US elections.
Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept
climate change as a real problem. Scientists
disillusioned with Bush’s stance are threatening to
make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his
campaign.

The fact that Marshall is behind its scathing findings
will aid Kerry’s cause. Marshall, 82, is a Pentagon
legend who heads a secretive think-tank dedicated to
weighing risks to national security called the Office
of Net Assessment. Dubbed ’Yoda’ by Pentagon insiders
who respect his vast experience, he is credited with
being behind the Department of Defense’s push on
ballistic- missile defense

Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political
interference, said that the suppression of the report
was a further instance of the White House trying to
bury evidence of climate change. ’It is yet another
example of why this government should stop burying its
head in the sand on this issue.’

Symons said the Bush administration’s close links to
high- powered energy and oil companies was vital in
understanding why climate change was received
skeptically in the Oval Office. ’This administration is
ignoring the evidence in order to placate a handful of
large energy and oil companies,’ he added.

= = = = =

Key findings of the Pentagon Report · Future wars will
be fought over the issue of survival rather than
religion, ideology or national honor. · By 2007 violent
storms smash coastal barriers rendering large parts of
the Netherlands inhabitable. Cities like The Hague are
abandoned. In California the delta island levees in the
Sacramento river area are breached, disrupting the
aqueduct system transporting water from north to south.

· Between 2010 and 2020 Europe is hardest hit by
climatic change with an average annual temperature drop
of 6F. Climate in Britain becomes colder and drier as
weather patterns begin to resemble Siberia.

· Deaths from war and famine run into the millions
until the planet’s population is reduced by such an
extent the Earth can cope.

· Riots and internal conflict tear apart India, South
Africa and Indonesia.

· Access to water becomes a major battleground. The
Nile, Danube and Amazon are all mentioned as being high
risk.

· A ’significant drop’ in the planet’s ability to
sustain its present population will become apparent
over the next 20 years.

· Rich areas like the US and Europe would become
’virtual fortresses’ to prevent millions of migrants
from entering after being forced from land drowned by
sea-level rise or no longer able to grow crops. Waves
of boatpeople pose significant problems.

· Nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. Japan,
South Korea, and Germany develop nuclear-weapons
capabilities, as do Iran, Egypt and North Korea.
Israel, China, India and Pakistan also are poised to
use the bomb.

· By 2010 the US and Europe will experience a third
more days with peak temperatures above 90F. Climate
becomes an ’economic nuisance’ as storms, droughts and
hot spells create havoc for farmers.

· More than 400m people in subtropical regions at grave
risk.

· Europe will face huge internal struggles as it copes
with massive numbers of migrants washing up on its
shores. Immigrants from Scandinavia seek warmer climes
to the south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by
refugees from hard-hit countries in Africa.

· Mega-droughts affect the world’s major breadbaskets,
including America’s Midwest, where strong winds bring
soil loss.

· China’s huge population and food demand make it
particularly vulnerable. Bangladesh becomes nearly
uninhabitable because of a rising sea level, which
contaminates the inland water supplies.

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004