US climate policy bigger threat to world than terrorism

By Steve Connor, Science Editor

Tony Blair’s chief scientist has launched a
withering attack on President George Bush for failing
to tackle climate change, which he says is more serious
than terrorism.

Sir David King, the Government’s chief scientific
adviser, says in an article today in the journal Science
that America, the world’s greatest polluter, must take
the threat of global warming more seriously.

"In my view, climate change is the most severe problem
that we are facing today, more serious even than the
threat of terrorism," Sir David says.

The Bush administration was wrong to pull out of the
Kyoto protocol, the international effort to limit the
emission of greenhouse gases, and wrong to imply the
protocol could adversely affect the US economy, Sir
David says. "As the world’s only remaining superpower,
the United States is accustomed to leading
internationally co-ordinated action. But the US
government is failing to take up the challenge of global
warming.

"The Bush administration’s strategy relies largely on
market-based incentives and voluntary action ... But the
market cannot decide that mitigation is necessary, nor
can it establish the basic international framework in
which all actors can take their place."

Results of a major study showed yesterday that more than
a million species will become extinct as a result of
global warming over the next 50 years. Sir David says
the Bush administration is wrong to dispute the reality
of global warming. The 10 hottest years on record
started in 1991 and, worldwide, average temperatures had
risen by 0.6C in the past century.

Sea levels were rising, ice caps were melting and
flooding had become more frequent. The Thames barrier
was used about once a year in the 1980s to protect
London but now it was used more than six times a year.

"If we could stabilise the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide
concentration at some realistically achievable and
relatively low level, there is still a good chance of
mitigating the worst effects of climate change."

But countries such as Britain could not solve the
problem of global warming in isolation, particularly
when the US was by far the biggest producer of
greenhouse gases on the planet. "The United Kingdom is
responsible for only 2 per cent of the world’s
emissions, the United States for more than 20 per cent
(although it contains only 4 per cent of the world’s
population)," Sir David says.

"The United States is already in the forefront of the
science and technology of global change, and the next
step is surely to tackle emissions control too. We can
overcome this challenge only by facing it together,
shoulder to shoulder. We in the rest of the world are
now looking to the US to play its leading part."

Advisers to President Bush have suggested climate change
is a natural phenomenon and criticised climate
researchers for suggesting that rises in global
temperatures are the result of man-made emissions of
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

But Sir David says the "causal link" between man-made
emissions and global warming is well-established and
scientists cannot explain the general warming trend over
the past century without invoking human-induced effects.

The Cambridge academic, who was born in South Africa and
emigrated to Britain, implies that the US has a moral
obligation to follow the UK’s lead in trying to limit
the damage resulting from rising world temperatures and
climate change.

"As a consequence of continued warming, millions more
people around the world may in future be exposed to the
risk of hunger, drought, flooding, and debilitating
diseases such as malaria," Sir David says.

"Poor people in developing countries are likely to be
most vulnerable. For instance, by 2080, if we assume
continuing growth rates in consumption of fossil fuels,
the numbers of additional people exposed to frequent
flooding in the river delta areas of the world would be
counted in hundreds of millions assuming no adaptation
measures were implemented."

President Bush has said more research on global warming
is needed before the US will consider the sort of action
needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol, but Sir David
says that by then it could be too late. "Delaying action
for decades, or even just years, is not a serious
option. I am firmly convinced that if we do not begin
now, more substantial, more disruptive, and more
expensive change will be needed later on."

Britain is committed to cutting its emissions of
greenhouse gases by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by
around 2050 and believes other developed countries, such
as the US, should follow suit. Bush officials say that
would damage their economy and provide an unfair
advantage to the country’s international competitors.
But Sir David says that it is a "myth" that reducing
greenhouse gas emissions makes us poorer. "Taking action
to tackle climate change can create economic
opportunities and higher living standards," he says.

A spokeswoman for the US State Department said that she
was unable to comment directly on Sir David’s article.

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http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=479418