Home > Global Depression. This Doesn’t Look Good: Taiwan, Korea and China Exports Tank
Global Depression. This Doesn’t Look Good: Taiwan, Korea and China Exports Tank
by Open-Publishing - Tuesday 20 January 2009Trade-Exchange Rates Economy-budget International
These look a lot like charts of financial variables after a bubble bursts, not charts of the level of exports. That isn’t good.
Looking just as the monthly data risks being misleading. There is a lot of seasonality in Taiwan’s exports. They usually dip in February. It is a short month, it often corresponds with the Chinese new year and the data isn’t seasonally adjusted. A small dip in December after the end of the Western holiday season also isn’t unusual. But such a big dip in December is most unusual. Plotting the rolling 3m sum eliminates the big February dip. The current downturn is real.
continue to read :