Swing states swing Kerry’s way

by George Wright and Sarah Left

National polls conducted since the televised Bush-Kerry debate on September 30 showed a surge in support for the Democratic challenger, and this seems to have been reflected in surveys of the all-important swing states.

A SurveyUSA poll in Ohio yesterday - just hours ahead of the locally-filmed vice-presidential debate - found that John Kerry had bounced back from a four-point deficit. The poll said 49% of voters supported him, against 48% for George Bush.

Meanwhile, the overall picture provided by pollster Charlie Cook also showed a slight shift in Kerry’s favour in the swing states.

Cook sees Bush’s total number of electoral votes - 270 are needed to win the electoral college - dropping slightly from 211 in September to 208 on October 3. Kerry’s share has stayed the same - 207 - and with 123 electoral votes in 11 swing states up for grabs, the race appears to be wide open.

The latest survey by John Zogby, conducted on September 21, found that neither of the main candidates "holds a clear-cut lead in enough states to win the electoral college votes required to capture the White House".

According to Zogby’s monthly surveys, Bush has been trailing Kerry since July but has begun to close the gap. He now holds 241 electoral votes compared to Kerry’s 264.

This was all in stark contrast to a poll published in the Philadelphia Inquirer 12 days before the presidential debate, which showed that Bush had opened up significant leads in 11 of the13 states that were most closely fought at the last election, including Ohio.

According to the survey, compiled by Mason-Dixon, the president was leading in six of the swing states won by the Republicans at the last election and five of the seven Democrat-held swing states.

Update on the situation in the swing-states

Depending on which pollster you listen to, there are as many as 20 or as few as three battleground states. The candidates are particularly active in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, because these states have the most electoral votes to offer among the undecided bloc.

The number of electoral votes a state receives is based on its population, making California the largest with 55 electoral votes. Seven states, and the District of Columbia, qualify for the minimum of three.

The following twenty states have the closest races (electoral votes in parentheses):

Bush won Arizona (10) fairly decisively in 2000, and an early-September poll by Market Solutions Group showed him to have what may be an unassailable lead: 54% to Kerry’s 38%.

Cook lists Arkansas (6) as a "likely" Bush win, but Zogby says it the state is "too close to call". The Kerry campaign has targeted Arkansas for its pre-election advertising spend.

Colorado (9) voted for Bush in 2000 and leans towards him now, but Kerry has targeted the state for an advertising blitz during the final weeks of the campaign. Cook lists the state as a "toss up", but Zogby says the state has swung from Kerry to Bush over the last month.

The biggest prize among the undecided states is Florida (27), which chose Bush in 2000 - with a little help from the supreme court - by the razor-thin margin of 527 votes.

Iowa (7) went to Gore in 2000. By August 26, Gallup still had Kerry leading Bush by 51% to 45%. But last month, Mason-Dixon said Bush was in front with 48% against Kerry’s 42%.

Cook says Michigan (17) leans toward Kerry, and Gore won here last time. Mason-Dixon shows Kerry on a six point lead.

Even with independent Ralph Nader taking 5% of the vote in 2000, Gore still won Minnesota (10). However, Bush could win here - polls show that neither he nor Kerry has a real lead.

A Zogby poll from August 25 showed Missouri (11) and Nevada (5) being too close to call, but he now says they have both moved into the Bush camp. Cook also lists them as a probable Bush win.

Bush just squeaked ahead in New Hampshire (4) at the last election, although the state may feel well disposed to a fellow New Englander in Kerry. For now, it remains too close to call.

Gore won New Mexico (5) by a small margin in 2000, and the race for the state is still very close. Mason-Dixon’s September poll has Bush and Kerry tied on 48%.

North Carolina (15) leans toward Bush - but this is John Edwards’ home state, and the Kerry campaign intends to spend heavily to turn things around.

A Gallup poll taken in mid-August confirmed that Ohio (20) will be a key battleground state. The recent SurveyUSA poll (see above) gives Kerry a narrow lead.

In 2000, Gore won Oregon (7) by a whisker, with 46.9% of the vote to Bush’s 46.5%. Nader took a hefty 5%. Cook and Mason-Dixon say the state is leaning towards Kerry.

Pennsylvania (21) went to Gore in 2000, but only just. The August 26 Gallup poll had Bush and Kerry neck and neck on 47%, with Nader at 2%, and 4% undecided.

Cook says Tennessee (11) has gone from "likely Bush" to "solid Bush in the last month, but Zogby feels it could still go either way. The Kerry campaign doesn’t seem to be holding out much hope - it’s not one of the 20 states where they have bought ad time.

Bush will win Virginia (13), Cook believes, and Kerry has not pre-bought ad time in the state.

Washington (11) will probably go to Kerry, says Cook, and the Republicans haven’t won a presidential vote here since Ronald Reagan did so in 1984. Bush has been targeting the state, but Kerry has not been complacent, allocating money for late-campaign advertising.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one in West Virginia (5), but Bush took the state in 2000. Both Bush and Kerry campaigned here over the Labour Day holiday weekend, with polls showing the candidates running neck and neck.

Wisconsin (10) went to Gore in 2000, but the September Mason-Dixon poll put Bush slightly ahead at 48%, with 46% preferring Kerry.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1321154,00.html