Analysis: An August of terror

By Peter Lavelle

Moscow, Russia, Aug. 31 (UPI) — A car exploded outside a Moscow subway station Tuesday killing at least 10 and injuring more than 50, leaving little doubt that the bomb was another terrorist act, one of many, in a wave that has gripped Russia this month.

With Chechen militants suspected in last week’s downing of two passenger airliners and the latest reports claiming a female Chechen suicide bomber may have set off the explosion after being turned away for the station, Russians again are forced to think about the ongoing conflict in Chechnya.

Tuesday’s car explosion damaged the vestibule of Rizhskaya subway station, which is northwest of Moscow’s city center and on a main freeway artery. Such a large explosion occurring so close to a subway station has all the markings of a terrorist act.

Moscow’s subway system is massive and during late afternoons and early evenings it runs at over 100 percent capacity. The Rizhskaya station is an ideal target for militants, given the presence of large numbers of people, making it difficult to protect even by Moscow’s high security standards.

Immediate reaction to the car blast has been something close to silent dread. Two weeks ago a small explosion damaged a Moscow bus stop. Last week two civilian domestic airliners vanished from radar screens simultaneously, killing 89 passengers and crew members. Russia’s media were quick to claim that the planes were targets of terrorists. The Kremlin held off for almost two days before it came to the same conclusion. So the subway blast hardly surprises anyone in Moscow.

The downing of the two planes and the car explosion are widely believed to be related to recent events in the war-torn republic of Chechnya. On Sunday, Chechens went to the polls to elect a new president following the assassination of the Kremlin’s strongman for the job, Akhmad Kadyrov, on May 9. The election outcome was never in doubt — another Kremlin candidate, Alu Alkhanov, won virtually unopposed. The Kremlin again claimed a political victory in the republic, but also went through the procedure of never allowing an open contest to determine what the Chechen people want.

Until more information is available on the destruction of the two planes, beyond the explosive material found at the wreckage sites, and the still to be corroborated report of a female suicide bomber setting off Tuesday’s blast, many analysts are pondering the timing of the latest wave of attacks.

Chechnya’s presidential election, Vladimir Putin’s international political standing, and Chechen militants "staging a fund-raising event," appear to be three related messages conveyed by the recent terrorist attacks.

— The Kremlin can elect anyone its wants to govern Chechnya, but it will in not stop attacks in the republic and the rest of Russia. The destruction of two aircrafts at the same time, strikingly similar to the attacks on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, sends the signal that the security is very much at risk. Attacking Moscow’s subway system is nothing short of an attempt to shutdown the entire city.

— Vladimir Putin can be embarrassed in the eyes of international public opinion. On Monday and Tuesday, Putin met with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French President Jacques Chirac to discuss, of all issues, international terrorism. All three certainly had much to discuss, with Schroeder and Chirac asking what Putin intends, after five years in office, to do about Chechen-inspired terrorism and unrest in the republic.

— Money and media coverage are needed by militants. Terrorists need funds to continue their wars against governments and civilians. Whoever is behind this latest wave of terrorist attacks in Russia, that person or group certainly has made a point.

The Kremlin’s high-profile pitch that Chechnya has been returning to normal and that it had the support of the Chechen people has frayed. The reality is that the Kremlin has run out of options — this is what the perpetrators of the recent attacks wanted to make clear to those interested in supporting extremist groups around the world.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the month of August has often been remembered for tragedy as well as political and economic upheaval. The last days of this August will be remembered for terror in Russia’s skies and cities. This month is also a stark reminder of the single most important and tragic policy area that has frustrated Putin — bringing peace to Chechnya so all Russians can live without fear.

– 0-

(Peter Lavelle is an independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of the electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" untimely-thoughts.com.)

http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20040831-032637-6294r.htm