Home > Iran — the gathering storm
Wars and conflicts International USA
By Farooq Hameed Khan*
-The massive US military build-up underway in the Gulf
is strikingly similar to the ones before the invasions
of Iraq and Afghanistan.
The second US aircraft carrier battle group is enroute
to the Gulf and a Patriot anti-missile battery has
already been deployed.
The US has also transferred deep penetration bunker
buster bombs to Israel under cover of the Lebanon war.
-Any joint US and Israeli pre-emptive strikes with
precision munitions from F 16/18s’ both land and
carrier based, and Tomahawk cruise missiles or low
yield nuclear weapons, will inflict a crippling blow
to Iran’s enrichment setups at Natanz, power reactors
near Bushehr [whee 3,700 Russian technicians and their
families are], research setups in Tehran and Esfahan,
military command, communication, control centres and
strategic economic targets within the first 24 hours.
Air strikes from US airbases in Afghanistan cannot be
ruled out.
-The US has always grossly underestimated the strength
and courage of the nations it attacked in the past.
Despite years of carpet bombing by US Air force B52s
and the burning of thousands of miles of jungles with
the deadly napalms and defoliaging with chemical
agents, they failed to break the will of the North
Vietnamese. Both Afghanistan and Iraq too turned out
to be nightmares for the occupying US and coalition
forces where they continue to sink into a deep
quagmire with a heavy toll of causalities.
In April 2006, Iran announced that its pilot facility
at Natanz had successfully enriched uranium to a level
of 3.5 per cent using a small cascade of 164
centrifuges.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the fiery Iranian leader
dismissed UN resolutions as a scrap of paper and vowed
to drastically increase uranium enrichment
capabilities by making operational an additional three
thousand centrifuges at the Natanz facility by March
of this year to attain industrial level enrichment.
When President Ahmedinejad stands up to defend Iran’s
right to a peaceful nuclear programme, he symbolises
the spirit of the Iranian revolution.
Emboldened by North Korea’s successful nuclear tests
and Hugo Chavez’s rhetoric against George W Bush, the
strategy adopted by the Iranian president of
confronting the US head on may perhaps be the best
approach in dealing with an arrogant hyper-power.
The massive US military build-up underway in the Gulf
is strikingly similar to the ones before the invasions
of Iraq and Afghanistan.
The second US aircraft carrier battle group is enroute
to the Gulf and a Patriot anti-missile battery has
already been deployed.
The US has also transferred deep penetration bunker
buster bombs to Israel under cover of the Lebanon war.
It may well be the case that covert US forces may even
have infiltrated Iranian territory for reconnaissance
and intelligence gathering of sensitive installations.
Elite Israeli air force and special forces units have
rehearsed precision strikes on simulated targets in
the Negev desert.
Iranian armed forces and Revolutionary Guards remain
involved in large-scale military exercises that
include live firing of long and short range missiles
and other indigenously developed weapon systems.
The recently acquired Russian TOR-M1 advanced medium
air defence missile system is under deployment to
protect vital Iranian nuclear and other installations.
Are the US and Israel heading for an armed showdown
with Iran or is it brinksmanship aimed to pressurise
the Iranians to cooperate in Iraq, roll back the
enrichment programme, and give up support for the
Shiite Hezbollah? Both the US and Israel view a
nuclear weapons armed Shiite Iran as a threat to
Israel’s existence, the smaller Gulf States and gulf
oil supplies.
Any joint US and Israeli pre-emptive strikes with
precision munitions from F 16/18s’ both land and
carrier based, and Tomahawk cruise missiles or low
yield nuclear weapons, will inflict a crippling blow
to Iran’s enrichment setups at Natanz, power reactors
near Bushehr, research setups in Tehran and Esfahan,
military command, communication, control centres and
strategic economic targets within the first 24 hours.
Air strikes from US airbases in Afghanistan cannot be
ruled out.
Given the fighting abilities of the Iranian armed
forces and the Revolutionary Guards, we could see
Iranian shock and awe tactics in the form of Shahab
and Fajr series long-range missile attacks against key
Israeli cities and US military sites in Iraq and
interests elsewhere in the Gulf.
Since Israel lacks depth, it may not be able to
withstand large scale destruction of its few major
population centres.
Precision weapons and antiship missile attacks by
Iranian naval subs and missile crafts and even suicide
missions against US naval targets may cause enough
damage far beyond US’s assessments, so as to block the
shipping lanes in the Gulf.
Although the Iranian Air Force’s F14 Tomcats fleet is
not fully mission capable due to its spares parts’
problems, the fleet of Mig 23/29 and Su 24/25 strike
aircraft has the potential to hit US ground and naval
assets real hard.
Perhaps the biggest danger to the west and US
interests would be the disruption of Gulf oil
supplies, a scenario most dreadful even for China and
Japan. The Iranians know too well that the world
economy can ill afford a setback to smooth Gulf oil
supplies.
With the element of military surprise no longer a key
factor in the ensuing crisis, the Iranians are
expected to have already implemented the necessary
defensive measures including dispersal of their key
enrichment facilities at alternate locations so as to
withstand and minimise the impact of the massive first
strike.
The US has always grossly underestimated the strength
and courage of the nations it attacked in the past.
Despite years of carpet bombing by US Air force B52s
and the burning of thousands of miles of jungles with
the deadly napalms and defoliaging with chemical
agents, they failed to break the will of the North
Vietnamese. Both Afghanistan and Iraq too turned out
to be nightmares for the occupying US and coalition
forces where they continue to sink into a deep
quagmire with a heavy toll of causalities.
By challenging Iran, the US may yet commit the mother
of all mistakes that will cost it dearly. Any plans
for military strikes against Iran would be like
playing with fire, for Ahmadinejad is no Saddam
Hussein, and the professional Iranian military
leadership stands high above those incompetent Iraqi
generals who virtually offered no resistance to the
invading coalition forces.
The US seems to ignore the lessons of history. No
sovereign nation can be arbitrarily prevented from
acquiring nuclear technology for legitimate peaceful
purposes and Iran is no exception. Sanctions have
never worked or deterred nations from pursuing their
national goals and objectives.
American sanctions against Pakistan did not deter its
resolve to develop and consolidate its nuclear
enrichment and weapons programme — these were deemed
essential to its national security imperatives. The UN
sanctions will not put brakes but only strengthen the
Iranian determination and commitment to their
enrichment programme. The Iranians have rallied around
Ahmadinejad more than ever and thus infused a new
spirit in the revolution.
The sanctions against Iran smack of hypocrisy.
While the west helped and then turned a blind eye
towards Israel’s two hundred or more nuclear weapons,
it has no legal or moral grounds to deny the Iranians
the right to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful
purposes especially when Iran is a signatory to the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel has yet
to sign.
In the past, Israel maintained a policy of nuclear
ambiguity but has recently acknowledged the existence
of its nuclear stockpile. Furthermore the IAEA has
produced no direct evidence that Iran is pursuing a
secret nuclear weapons programme.
Pakistan supports Iran’s quest for peaceful nuclear
energy and will oppose any use of force against a
brother Islamic neighbour. A destabilised Iran on its
western frontier will not be in Pakistan’s security
and energy interests. Both Iran and Pakistan are
committed to move forward on the planned transnational
gas pipeline despite the US’s efforts to block this
mega project so essential to our future energy needs.
At a time when Iraq has slipped into total chaos and
sectarian turmoil, the US badly needs Iran’s support
to restore civil order in Iraq. In line with the
recommendation of the Iraq Study Group, a dialogue
with Iran and Syria may well be the most prudent
approach to bring stability to Iraq and the Middle
East in all respects.
It is Iran’s inalienable right as a sovereign nation
to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
It is in the west’s interests to recognise this right
and learn to live with a nuclear Iran.
If peace is to be sustained on a permanent basis, then
the Middle East should be declared a nuclear weapon
free zone; Israel disarmed of its nuclear arsenal and
its facilities opened to IAEA monitoring and
safeguards.
The US must finally accept the reality that no amount
of military force or intimidation can cow down a
nation determined to fight for its just rights and
pride.
*The writer is an aeronautical engineer and a retired
brigadier based in Lahore. E-mail: fhkhan54@gmail.com