Iraq Drags Down Bush In Missouri

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Iraq Drags Down Bush In Missouri
By Jo Mannies, Post-Dispatch Political Correspondent
Sunday, Jun. 25 2006

When President George W. Bush returns to Missouri on Wednesday, he’ll find hmself in politically unfriendly territory, a new poll indicates.

That’s an unusual predicament for a Republican who easily carried the state in 2004.

According to the poll, conducted by Research 2000 for the Post-Dispatch and MOV-TV (Channel 4), a majority of likely voters in Missouri now view the president unfavorably. That’s a significant change from the last poll, in January, which showed Missouri’s electorate to be split.

Of the 800 likely voters polled last week, less than 40 percent rated Bush’s performance in office as "excellent" or "good." And if they had a chance to revisit the 2004 election, the poll participants gave an 8 percentage-point edge to the Democratic loser, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.

Pollster Del Ali, head of Research 2000, said the results had little to do with Kerry and everything to do with rising dissatisfaction with Bush. He added that’s not a good sign for Republicans in a swing state such as Missouri, where voters have preferred the GOP in recent elections.

"This is a state where Bush should still be popular," Ali said.

The pollster primarily links the change in Bush’s fortunes to one issue: Iraq.

"Voters have soured on the war, so they’ve soured on him," said Ali, whose firm has seen similar results in polling it has conducted for media outlets around the country.

A clear majority of the Missourians polled - 54 percent - said they did not think the war in Iraq was worth it. Forty percent supported the war, while 6 percent were undecided.

Those results were outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error means that any individual number could be 3.5 percentage points higher or lower.

This is the first Research 2000 poll to show such a clear anti-war sentiment in Missouri since the war began in March 2003. The firm’s poll in January, for example, showed 45 percent in support of the war while 51 percent thought the war was not worth it.

Earlier polls had shown likely Missouri voters to be evenly split. The last statewide poll to show solid support for the war in Iraq was conducted in
January 2004.

This poll also showed stronger sentiment for withdrawing troops - 60 percent called for at least some troops to come home; that’s a 10 percentage-point shift since January.

Bob Laughlin, a retired state government employee, voted for Bush in 2000 but says he no longer supports the president’s policies. The war in Iraq is a key reason.

"We didn’t have the right information going in. We don’t have the right information now," said Laughlin, who still considers himself a Republican. "I
think the war in Iraq is a wasted effort. I hate to see anyone killed for nothing."

But Dan Bender, an engineer from St. Louis, is concerned that such views will hurt U.S. chances for victory. "Our peril is in discontinuing support," said Bender, a Republican. "Now that we’ve committed to this, we need to see it through."

A majority of those polled were even pessimistic about the long-term effect of the recent death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the al-Qaida leader in Iraq. Only one of five poll participants thought it would lead to a decline in violence, while more than three-quarters expected the violence to remain the same or increase.

Only 6 percent of those polled thought the war in Iraq was making Americans safer.

That view may contribute to the heightened worries about the prospect for terrorism at home. Almost 70 percent said they were "concerned" or "very concerned" about the possibility of another terrorist attack this year.

"As a U.S. citizen, I feel more vulnerable than I ever have," said Stephanie Nichols, 28, of Hazelwood.

Kendra Ceresia, 38, a resident of Wildwood and the mother of three daughters, said her concern about security - for the nation and her family - was a major reason why she continued to support Bush.

"I just think that President Bush was very strong in defending our country," said Ceresia, a Republican.

But Nichols, an independent, views the president quite differently. "There’s no leadership. I feel that we’re worse off than I’ve ever remembered," she said.

For both women, other issues bolster their positions.

"I believe in the values that he also has," said Ceresia, citing her opposition to abortion. "He’s a decent person, that’s where he’s coming from."

Meanwhile, Nichols echoed the economic concerns of almost two-thirds of those polled.

"Interest rates are up, gas prices are up and jobs are not up," said Nichols, who works in sales. For all the administration’s talk about the growth in new
jobs, she added, "they’re not good jobs. They’re $7- and $8-an-hour jobs."

But Ali is convinced that Iraq - and not other issues - will determine Bush’s future status in Missouri, and his party’s chances this fall. "If Iraq is where it is today, he’s a drag on all Republicans," Ali said. But he added that if Iraq stabilizes, so could the political standing of the president and his party.