Home > Resistance stronger in Iraq, analysts say
BY JONATHAN S. LANDAY AND WARREN P. STROBEL
WASHINGTON - The U.S. strategy to create a stable, democratic Iraq is in danger of failing, current and former U.S. officials say, and the anti-American insurgency is growing larger, more sophisticated and more violent.
The violence increasingly appears to threaten nationwide elections planned for January, which are key to President Bush’s hopes for reducing the number of U.S. troops, now 140,000, and making a graceful exit from Iraq.
"The overall prospects... are for a violent political future," said Jeffrey White, a former senior Defense Intelligence Agency analyst.
Top Bush administration officials publicly acknowledge that the insurgency is getting worse. But they point out that they predicted it would do that as Iraq’s January elections approached.
One senior administration official deeply engaged in Iraq policy said that the new U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, the huge Central Intelligence Agency station there and the U.S. military command are working together far better than they previously did and collecting much better and more refined information on the insurgency. However, the official said, the recent improvements may not be enough to overcome setbacks caused by mistakes that date back to inadequate pre-war planning.
"We’ve finally got our act together, but it’s probably too late," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he’s more pessimistic than the administration’s official line on Iraq.
The insurgency, meanwhile, has gained strength.
White said his conservative estimate is that there are 100,000 Iraqis involved in the Sunni insurgency, including fighters, messengers and people who provide housing and other assistance. He discounted estimates by U.S. military commanders that the Sunni resistance numbers about 5,000 fighters.
In tacit recognition of the ugly realities, the Bush administration on Tuesday announced that it’s asking Congress to shift almost $3.5 billion from Iraqi reconstruction projects to improve security.