Will Bush Spring a Surprise to Sway the Voters?

by Michael Saba

In Washington D.C. this week at the Arab policy-makers annual conference, sponsored by the National Council on US-Arab Relations, the mood was bleak. Almost none of the speakers and very few of the participants felt that anything positive would be happening in the immediate and near future regarding US-Arab and Mideast relations. Most complained that both major presidential candidates, Bush and Kerry, had the equation wrong and neither really understood what was going on in the Middle East or what to do about it. And that was the good news. There was much talk about the power of the neocons and their pressure on the US government to support Israel’s agenda in the region, which includes confrontations with both Syria and Iran, the Iranian one possibly bordering on the start a nuclear confrontation between Israel and Iran. No concrete conclusions emerged from the conference, only lots of old and new questions that lacked answers.

Heard in the lobbies of the conference halls, however, were possibly more interesting remarks than those of the formal speakers. John Zogby of the well-respected Zogby polling group was heard to say that, right at this moment, “Bush was leading by a sliver, but it could still go either way.” And one astute Republican insider, who is usually in the know, said that they had heard that immediately after George Bush’s re-election, he would pull out of Iraq! Bush; pull out of Iraq that quickly? That’s what they said.

What is happening in the presidential process now and what is likely to happen in the next 50+ days leading to the presidential election? First of all, we are now hearing more and more about the potential “October surprises” that the candidates might be able to produce to effect the election. Usually these October surprises are only possible and effective when produced by the incumbent party, but one of the most famous October surprise scenarios discussed was the election of Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter in 1980 when the Iranians did not let the American hostages free until Carter’s loss of the presidency.

Various potential October surprises which could be used by the Bush team include the announcement of the capture of Osama Bin Laden, the discovery of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and the discovery of weapons of mass destruction in nations such as Iran and Syria and the subsequent confrontations. There are others but these are the one’s discussed most often.

Many political pundits claim that terrorist incidents, particularly in the United States prior to or during the actual election process, would be detrimental to the Bush administration, but this observer doesn’t necessarily see it that way. President Bush has been telling us that he is protecting us not only from incidents, but also if incidents were to happen. A particularly clever Bush strategy might be to continue to warn Americans of imminent attacks while people are actually voting. US Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge has even requested a Justice Department opinion on whether voting could be suspended or canceled in the event of a terrorist attack or the immediate threat of one.

The American public was outraged when they heard of Ride’s request. After all, it is almost our “God-given democratic right” to be able to vote. So a brilliant Karl Rovean (Karl Rove, a Bush political consultant, is often referred to as “Bush’s Brain”) strategy might be to have President Bush call out the National Guard to protect us at each and every one of the over 200,000 voting sites in the US. Local Guard troops, known in each respective voting community, dressed in their camouflaged khakis would be standing with arms at their side at the entrances of the voting sites. Any undecided voter would likely be thankful that President Bush was protecting our democratic rights and this gesture could swing numerous votes to the Bush camp.

There is some talk that John Kerry still has some tricks up his sleeve. We are hearing more and more about George W. Bush’s Air National Guard service or lack of it during the Vietnam conflict and Kitty Kelly’s new book, which reportedly talks about various Bush indiscretions, trysts and drug and alcohol incidents, could be made into last- minute Kerry campaign tactics to hurt Bush.

Whatever scenarios are developed by both political parties, the situation in Iraq and the Middle East is likely to get worse, rather than better, leading into the election. We have already passed the 1000 mark of American military deaths in Iraq and scores of Iraqi collaborators are being killed and wounded daily. Bush cannot afford to admit now that his Iraq policy was a mistake. But he might have just had too much and, if re-elected, as our friend at the Arab policy-makers conference predicted, turn over the reins to the new Iraq government and leave the quagmire of Iraq to the Iraqi people.

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=51628&d=18&m=9&y=2004